The impact of global warming in Asia
The Asian region spans polar, temperate, and tropical climates and is home to over 3 billion people. As the climate warms, many mountain glaciers may disappear, permafrost will thaw, and the northern forests are likely to shift further north. Rapid population growth and development in countries like China and India will put additional pressures on natural ecosystems and will lead to a rapid rise in the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere unless steps are taken to curtail emissions.
Fingerprints
1. Llasa, Tibet -- Warmest June on record, 1998. Temperatures hovered above 77�F for 23 days.
59. Garhwal Himalayas, India -- Glacial retreat at record pace. The Dokriani Barnak Glacier retreated 66 ft (20.1 m) in 1998 despite a severe winter. The Gangorti Glacier is retreating 98 ft (30 m) per year. At this rate scientists predict the loss of all central and eastern Himalayan glaciers by 2035.
62. Tien Shan Mountains, China -- Glacial ice reduced by one quarter in the past 40 years.
90. Southern India - Heat wave, May 2002. In the state of Andhra Pradesh temperatures rose to 120�F, resulting in the highest one-week death toll on record. This heat wave came in the context of a long-term warming trend in Asia in general. India, including southern India, has experienced a warming trend at a rate of 1�F (0.6�C) per century.
91. Nepal - High rate of temperature rise. Since the mid-1970s the average air temperature measured at 49 stations has risen by 1.8�F (1�C), with high elevation sites warming the most. This is twice as fast as the 1�F (0.6�C) average warming for the mid-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere (24 to 40�N) over the same time period, and illustrates the high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change.
93. Taiwan - Average temperature increase. The average temperature for the island has risen 1.8-2.5�F (1-1.4�C) in the last 100 years. The average temperature for 2000 was the warmest on record.
94. Afghanistan - 2001 - Warmest winter on record. Arid Central Asia, which includes Afghanistan, experienced a warming of 0.8-3.6�F (1-2�C) during the 20th century.
95. Tibet - Warmest decade in 1,000 years. Ice core records from the Dasuopu Glacier indicate that the last decade and last 50 years have been the warmest in 1,000 years. Meteorological records for the Tibetan Plateau show that annual temperatures increased 0.4�F (0.16�C) per decade and winter temperatures increased 0.6�F (0.32�C) per decade from 1955 to 1996.
96. Mongolia - Warmest century of the past millennium. A 1,738-year tree-ring record from remote alpine forests in the Tarvagatay Mountains indicates that 20th century temperatures in this region are the warmest of the last millennium. Tree growth during 1980-1999 was the highest of any 20-year period on record, and 8 of the 10 highest growth years occurred since 1950. The 20th century warming has been observed in tree-ring reconstructions of temperature from widespread regions of Eurasia, including sites in the Polar Urals, Yakutia, and the Taymir Peninsula, Russia. The average annual temperature in Mongolia has increased by about 1.3�F (0.7�C) over the past 50 years.
119. Chokoria Sundarbans, Bangladesh - Flooded mangroves. Rising ocean levels have flooded about 18,500 acres (7,500 hectares) of mangrove forest during the past three decades. Global sea-level rise is aggravated by substantial deltaic subsidence in the area with rates as high as 5.5 mm/year.
120. China - Rising waters and temperature. The average rate of sea-level rise was 0.09 +/- 0.04 inches (2.3 +/- 0.9 mm) per year over the last 30 years. Global sea-level rise was aggravated locally by subsidence of up to 2 inches (5 cm) per year for some regions due to earthquakes and groundwater withdrawal. Also, ocean temperatures off the China coast have risen in the last 100 years, especially since the 1960s.
126. Bhutan - Melting glaciers swelling lakes. As Himalayan glaciers melt glacial lakes are swelling and in danger of catastrophic flooding. Average glacial retreat in Bhutan is 100-130 feet (30-40 m) per year. Temperatures in the high Himalayas have risen 1.8�F (1�C) since the mid 1970s.
127. India - Himalayan glaciers retreating. Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at an average rate of 50 feet (15 m) per year, consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the Baspa glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter.
130. Mt. Everest - Retreating glacier.The Khumbu Glacier, popular climbing route to the summit of Mt. Everest, has retreated over 3 miles (5 km) since 1953. The Himalayan region overall has warmed by about 1.8�F (1�C) since the 1970s.
131. Kyrgyzstan - Disappearing glaciers. During 1959-1988, 1,081 glaciers in the Pamir-Altai disappeared. Temperatures in the mountains of Kyrgyztan have increased by 0.9-2.7� F (0.5-1.5�C) since the 1950s.
142. Siberia - Melting permafrost. Large expanses of tundra permafrost are melting. In some regions the rate of thawing of the upper ground is nearly 8 inches (20 cm) per year. Thawing permafrost has already damaged 300 buildings in the cities of Norilsk and Yakutsk. In Yakutsk, the average temperature of the permanently frozen ground has warmed by 2.7 �F (1.5�C) during the past 30 years.
Harbingers
18. Indonesia -- Malaria spreads to high elevations. Malaria was detected for the first time as high as 6,900 feet (2103 m) in the highlands of Irian Jaya in 1997.
50. Philippines -- Coral reef bleaching.
51. Indian Ocean -- Coral reef bleaching (inclues Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia).
52. Persian Gulf -- Coral reef bleaching.
77. Korea -- Heavy rains and flooding. Severe flooding struck during July and August, 1998, with daily rainfall totals exceeding 10 inches (25.4 cm).
87. Indonesia -- Burning rainforest, 1998. Fires burned up to 2 million acres (809,371 hectares) of land, including almost 250,000 acres (101,172 hectares) of primary forest and parts of the already severely reduced habitat of the Kalimantan orangutan.
88. Khabarovsk, Russia -- Wildfires threaten tiger habitat, 1998. Drought and high winds fueled fires that destroyed 3.7 million acres (1,497,337 hectares) of taiga and threatened two important nature reserves that are habitat for the only remaining Amur tigers.
103. Bangladesh - Link between stronger El Ni�o events and cholera prevalence. Researchers found a robust relationship between progressively stronger El Ni�o events and cholera prevalence, spanning a 70-year period from 1893-1940 and 1980-2001. There has been a marked intensification of the El Ni�o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon since the 1980s, which is not fully explained by the known shifts in the Pacific basin temperature regime that began in the mid-1970s. Findings by Rodo et al. are consistent with model projections of El Ni�o intensification under global warming conditions. The authors make a strong case for the climate-health link by providing evidence for biological sensitivity to climate, meteorological evidence of climate change, and evidence of epidemiological change with global warming. The study likely represents the first piece of evidence that warming trends over the last century are affecting human disease.
105. Lake Baikal, Russia - Shorter freezing period. Winter freezing is about 11 days later and spring ice breakup is about 5 days earlier compared to a century ago. Some regions of Siberia have warmed by as much as 2.5�F (1.4�C) in just 25 years.
147. Iran - Desiccated wetlands, 2001 Ninety percent of wetlands have dried up after 2 years of extreme drought. Much of South West Asia has experienced a prolonged three-year drought that is unusual in its magnitude. Out of 102 years of record, 1999, 2000, and 2001 rank as the fifth, third, and seventh driest on record. 1999-2000 was the driest winter on record.
148. Pakistan - Longest drought on record, 1999-2001. The prolonged three-year drought, which covers much of South West Asia, has affected 2.2 million people and 16 million livestock in Pakistan.
149. Tajikistan - Lowest rainfall in 75 years, 2001. 2001 marked the third consecutive year of drought, which has destroyed half the wheat crop.
150. Korea - Worst drought in 100 years of record, 2001. It coincided with an average annual temperature increase in Asia�s temperate region, which includes Korea, by more than 1.8�F (1�C) over the past century. The warming has been most pronounced since 1970.
155. China - Disappearing Lakes, 2001. More than half of the 4,000 lakes in the Qinghai province are disappearing due to drought. The severity of the impact is exacerbated by overpumping of aquifers. Annual average temperature in China has increased during the past century, with pronounced warming since 1980. Most of the warming has been in northern areas, including Qinghai Province, and in the winter.
The impact of global warming in Antarctica
The impacts of warming temperatures in Antarctica are likely to occur first in the northern sections of the continent, where summer temperatures approach the melting point of water, 32�F (0�C). Some ice shelves in the northernmost part of Antarctica—the Antarctic Peninsula—have been collapsing in recent years, consistent with the rapid warming trend there since 1945. Scientists are also concerned about future changes in the large West Antarctic ice sheet on the main continent because its collapse could raise sea level by as much as 19 feet (5.8 meters).
Fingerprints
70. Antarctic Peninsula -- Warming 5 times global average. Since 1945, the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a warming of about 4.5�F (2.5�C). The annual melt season has increased by 2 to 3 weeks in just the past 20 years.
73. Antarctica -- Ice shelf disintegration. The 770 square mile (1,994 km2) Larsen A ice shelf disintegrated suddenly in January 1995.
74. Antarctica -- Ice shelf breakup. After 400 years of relative stability, nearly 1,150 square miles (2,978 km2) of the Larson B and Wilkins ice shelves collapsed between March 1998 and March 1999.
122. Southern Ocean - Strong warming trend. Measurements from data recorders in the Southern Ocean waters around Antarctica show a 0.3�F (0.17�C) rise in ocean temperatures between the 1950s and the 1980s.
140. Antarctica - Decreasing Ice-thickness. The permanent ice cover of nine lakes on Signey Island has decreased by about 45% since the 1950s. Average summer air temperature has warmed by 1.8�F (1�C).
141. Antarctic Peninsula - Collapsing ice-shelf, January-February 2002. The northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf, an area of 1,250 square miles (3,250 km2), disintegrated in a period of 35 days. This was the largest collapse event of the last 30 years, bringing the total loss of ice extent from seven ice shelves to 6,760 square miles (17,500 km2) since 1974. The ice retreat is attributed to the region�s strong warming trend - 4.5�F (2.5�C) in the last 50 years.
Harbingers
32. Antarctica -- Penguin population decline. Adelie Penguin populations have shrunk by 33% during the past 25 years in response to declines in their winter sea ice habitat.
The impact of global warming in Africa
The African continent is a rich mosaic of ecosystems, ranging from the snow and ice fields of Kilimanjaro to tropical rainforests to the Saharan desert.
Although it has the lowest per capita fossil energy use of any major world region, Africa may be the most vulnerable continent to climate change because widespread poverty limits countries� capabilities to adapt.
Signs of a changing climate in Africa have already emerged: spreading disease and melting glaciers in the mountains, warming temperatures in drought-prone areas, and sea-level rise and coral bleaching along the coastlines.
Fingerprints
3. Cairo, Egypt -- Warmest August on record, 1998. Temperatures reached 105.8�F (41�C) on August 6, 1998.
5. Southern Africa -- Warmest and driest decade on record, 1985-1995. Average temperature increased almost 1�F (0.56�C) over the past century.
41. Senegal -- Sea-level rise; Sea-level rise is causing the loss of coastal land at Rufisque, on the South Coast of Senegal.
61. Kenya -- Mt. Kenya's largest glacier disappearing. 92 percent of the Lewis Glacier has melted in the past 100 years.
121. World Ocean - Warming water. The world ocean has experienced a net warming of 0.11�F (0.06�C) from the sea surface to a depth of 10,000 feet (3000 m) over the past 35-45 years. More than half of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper 1000 feet (300 m), which has warmed by 0.56�F (0.31�C). Warming is occurring in all ocean basins and at much deeper depths than previously thought. These findings lend support to the hypothesis that the oceans are taking up excess heat as the atmosphere warms, and would account for the apparent discrepancy in the magnitude of the observed atmospheric warming as compared to climate model predictions.
133. Mount Kilmanjaro, Tanzania - Ice projected to disappear by 2020. 82% of Kilimanjaro�s ice has disappeared since 1912, with about one-third melting in just the last dozen years. At this rate, all of the ice will be gone in about 15 years. Scientists hypothesize that less snow on the mountain during the rainy season decreases the surface reflectiveness, leading to higher rates of absorption of heat and increased ice melt.
134. Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda - Disappearing glaciers. Since the 1990s, glacier area has decreased by about 75%. The continent of Africa warmed by 0.9� F (0.5�C) during the past century, and the five warmest years in Africa have all occurred since 1988.
Harbingers
14. Kenya -- Deadly malaria outbreak, summer, 1997. Hundreds of people died from malaria in the Kenyan highlands where the population had previously been unexposed.
17. Tanzania -- Malaria expands in mountains. Higher annual temperatures in the Usamabara Mountains have been linked to expanding malaria transmission.
51. Indian Ocean -- Coral Reef Bleaching (includes Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia).
52. Persian Gulf -- Coral reef bleaching.
57. Seychelles Islands -- Coral reef bleaching.
151. Kenya - Worst drought in 60 years, 2001. Over four million people were affected by a severely reduced harvest, weakened livestock, and poor sanitary conditions.
154. Lake Chad - Disappearing Lake. The surface area of the lake has decreased from 9,650 square miles (25,000 km2) in 1963 to 521 (1,350 km2) today. Modeling studies indicate the severe reduction results from a combination of reduced rainfall and increased demand for water for agricultural irrigation and other human needs.
156. South Africa - Burning shores, January 2000. One of the driest Decembers on record and temperatures over 104�F (40�C) fueled extensive fires along the coast in the Western Cape Province. The intensity of the fires was exacerbated by the presence of invasive vegetation species, some of which give off 300% more heat when burned compared to natural vegetation.
Global Warming:Early Warning Signs
"An increasing body of observations gives
a collective picture of a warming world
and other changes in the climate system."
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001
This map illustrates the local consequences of global warming.
FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures-
Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
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Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding
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Glaciers melting
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Arctic and Antarctic warming
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Spreading disease
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Earlier spring arrival
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Plant and animal range shifts and population changes
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Coral reef bleaching
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Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
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Droughts and fires
The map of early warning signs clearly illustrates the global nature of climate changes. In its 2001 assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that, �an increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system."
While North America and Europe—where the science is strongest—exhibit the highest density of indicators, scientists have made a great effort in recent years to document the early impacts of global warming on other continents. Our map update reflects this emerging knowledge from all parts of the world.
Although factors other than climate may have intensified the severity of some of the events on the map, scientists predict such problems will increase if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not brought under control.
You can purchase a copy of the map as a 3 feet by 2 feet display poster. Please note that the hard-copy versions of the map do not contain the recently added map points (points 90 - 156).
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