Global warming effects

US Congress reaches deal on farm bill

2008-04-28T03:24:00.000-07:00

Congressional negotiators on Friday reached a tentative agreement on the farm bill, potentially ending months of deadlock over US agricultural policy amid record profits by farmers and mounting concerns over rising food prices.

The proposed legislation, whose final details will be unveiled next week and still face the possibility of a White House veto, will cost $280bn over five years and largely preserves an extensive programme of subsidies to US farmers.

Under the terms of the deal reached by House and Senate negotiators, a key ethanol tax credit is expected to be reduced from 51 cents per gallon to 45 and the tariff on ethanol imports from outside the US is also expected to be scaled back.

In addition, negotiators broadly agreed on an additional $10bn in funding for national food aid programmes, designed to tackle the threat posed by rising food prices in the US and address fears that millions of poor Americans risk going hungry.

Today the principal farm bill negotiators came together on a bipartisan level to reach a tentative agreement on the agriculture policy that will make the final farm bill a strong one,” said Tom Harkin, the Iowa Democrat who chairs the Senate committee on agriculture, nutrition and forestry.

The House and the Senate had been trying to reconcile their differences for months, but growing concerns about food prices gave added urgency to their efforts. US food inflation rose 4.7 per cent last year and is expected to record a similar jump in 2008.

The Bush administration has threatened on several occasions to block passage of the bill on the grounds that some of the measures amount to tax increases. Its position on the agreement reached on Friday is unlikely to be known until final details are unveiled next week.

A new farm bill is negotiated every five years in Washington, amid massive lobbying efforts by crop growers, environmentalists and food stamp campaigners. In addition, the terms of this year’s bill are being closely tracked by international trade negotiators concerned that they may undercut multilateral efforts in the struggling Doha round to slash agricultural subsidies around the world.

The negotiations in Congress have coincided with a fight between the White House and Democratic lawmakers over the fate of a controversial free trade agreement between the US and Colombia. This week, Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, appeared relatively optimistic however that a deal might be struck with Nancy Pelosi, House speaker, unlocking the agreement.

“I look forward to...talking to her,” Mr Paulson said in a Reuters interview. “She said she was going to call me back with some ideas. I’m always willing to listen and I would very much like to see Colombia get done.’’

Green roofs’ help take the heat off urban environments

2008-04-28T03:23:00.000-07:00

On a mild April afternoon, the sun baked a Bronx, N.Y., rooftop to the tune of over 104 degrees. Just yards away, another rooftop also sat beneath the sun, but only measured about 70 degrees.

The difference? The cooler roof was a green roof, 5,600 square feet of shrubby plants called sedum. And the temperature difference between the two roofs is just one type of data climatologist Stuart Gaffin is gathering in an effort to convince politicians and developers that green roofs are critical to the future of cities.

Gaffin, an atmospheric researcher at Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research, has been studying how green roofs affect the environment since January, when he began gathering data from his rooftop laboratory on the recently constructed buildings of the campus of the Ethical Culture Fieldston School, a private school in the Bronx. Gaffin is one of a growing number of climatologists who believe green roofs are a powerful technology to help cities confront the threats of global climate change.

“Global warming has been my issue for my whole career,” said Gaffin, and the data he’s collecting is bolstering the case for green roofs. Compared to that other, conventional roof, the green roof stays cooler in the sun, drinks up rainwater, and reflects sunlight that would otherwise heat the roof like a blowtorch on a steel girder.

Cities are hotspots of worry for climate scientists because expansive urban areas, coated in asphalt and belching the summertime exhaust of countless air conditioners, already pose problems for air quality, heat and excess rainfall, which can foul water systems. In the coming years, global warming is expected to make these problems worse. “Two of the biggest predictions for cities is more heat and more rain,” said Gaffin. “Global warming is going to actually amplify both of those things.”

Global warming will increase the intensity, duration and number of heat waves in the United States, said Radley Horton, another climatologist at Columbia. And this is in addition to an existing problem: the urban heat island, a stifling pocket of air saturated with pollutants that surrounds cities on hot summer days. While Horton won’t link global warming to the urban-heat-island effect, he believes the combination of the two poses a dramatic threat.

Heat kills more people than any weather phenomenon except for extreme cold, according to the National Weather Service. An average of 170 people die every year from excess heat, but in some years that number rises drastically. In 1980, 1,250 died from a nationwide heat wave, and in 1994, more than 400 people suffered heat-related deaths in the city of Chicago alone.

Politicians have responded to such disasters by seeking environmental “sustainability,” making the use of environmentally friendly building materials and green roof technology, a policy issue. Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley installed 20,000 square feet of green roof on City Hall as an experiment to encourage green development in the Windy City. Seattle, too, has a green roof on top of its City Hall.

Portland, Boston and Baltimore are some of the other cities with policies to promote green roofing for new development. And New York City has proposed a tax incentive for green roof installations in Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s PlaNYC 2030 environmental initiative.

Yet in many cities, including New York, green roof production has been slow to gain momentum. “Many mainstream decision-makers have not yet been convinced that high-performance design is good business practice,” said a report by the non-profit U.S. Green Buildings Council. Part of the reason is cost. Installing a green roof in the United States can cost anywhere from 50 to 500 percent more than a normal roof, depending on factors such as the design, height and location of the building.

But Gaffin believes his research will offer convincing proof to policy makers that green roofs could avert summer power outages from strained electrical grids, as well as other problems, by lowering air conditioning needs of buildings, and cooling and filtering the local air. The plants absorb carbon dioxide, the villainous greenhouse gas. They filter pollution from the air, which helps lower air temperatures around the building. And green roofs act as insulation, lowering heating and cooling costs for buildings during the winter and summer months, experts said.

And while a single green roof benefits one building, advocates said a wide area of green-roofed buildings can affect the climate of a whole community.

“Is one roof (going to) make the entire neighborhood better air quality? A little,” said Mark Thomann, a landscape architect at Balmori Associates, a design firm in New York. “Would a whole bunch of green roofs do it? Sure.”

The sedum plants themselves are easy to maintain, experts said, requiring weeding for only the first few seasons until they fill the roof with a dense, verdant carpet. The sedum plant can survive long periods of drought, heavy rainstorms, and severe winds. “They’re tough,” said Kurt Horvath, president of Intrinsic Landscaping, which planted the roofs of Chicago’s transit authority and the Quaker Oats headquarters. “They can take a lot of abuse.”

Horvath argues that green roofs aren’t just good for the environment, but they can also be good business. “People are starting to realize the benefits,” said Horvath. “One of the biggest drivers is the architectural community has grasped this and run with it.”

In the Midwest, interest in green roofs is sprouting up, and entrepreneurs are taking notice. From 2004 to 2005, green roof square footage grew 80 percent in the United States, with Chicago and Washington, D.C. leading the way, according to Green Roofs for Healthy Cities, a green roof industry organization with more than 4,000 individual and 75 corporate members.

While green roof technology is off to a strong start in some cities, it struggles to grow in others. “We’ve had a lot of requests from architects,” said Thomann of the Balmori firm, which created a green roof for The Sopranos studio at Silvercup Studios in Queens, N.Y. “But,” he said, “they just want a deck terrace with a couple of planters.”

Gaffin said even in winter he’s seeing a return on the green roof investment. “These roofs are insulating in the winter,” he said. “They’re keeping the building warmer in the cold weather.”

On a recent morning after a rainstorm, Gaffin noted that the roof had captured 2,000 gallons of water, “2,000 gallons of water that didn’t go into the (sewer) system,” he said, referring to a problem called Combined Sewer Overflow, in which rain floods the sewers and sewage leaks into local waters.

“It’s really the number-one source of pathogens to the harbor,” he said.

Gaffin will begin publishing his data later this spring, but thinks his research is only a start to understanding the potential of this technology. “One of the things about green roofs,” he said, “is there’s really lots to be discovered.”

After Near Extinction, Humans Split Into Isolated Bands

2008-04-28T03:20:00.000-07:00

After nearly going extinct 150,000 years ago, humankind split into small groups—living in isolation for nearly a hundred thousand years before "reuniting" and migrating out of Africa, a new gene study says. At one point our species may have been down to as few as 2,000 individuals, probably due to climate change—a longstanding theory bolstered by the new findings.

The research fills a gap in our understanding of what was happening in Africa before humans first left the continent.

"The assumption has always been that the original population [in sub-Saharan Africa] was very small but probably a single population," said Spencer Wells, head of the Genographic Project, which oversaw the study.

"Turns out, that is not the case."

(The National Geographic Society owns National Geographic News and funds the Genographic Project.)

The study appears in the current issue of the American Journal of Human Genetics.

Separate Ways

Around 200,000 years ago, modern humans emerged as a distinct species. All people alive today can trace their ancestry back to these humans, according to previous studies.

By the time the first great migrations out of Africa began, around 60,000 years ago, humanity had split into distinct populations with unique genetic lineages.

So what happened between 200,000 years ago and 60,000 years ago?

To find out, Wells and his colleagues analyzed 624 complete genomes of mitochondrial DNA—which is passed down from mothers—from various indigenous populations across sub-Saharan Africa. A genome is a person's complete set of DNA (quick overview of human genetics).

How much your groceries will cost in 10 years

2008-04-28T03:19:00.000-07:00

How much is your shopping basket going to cost in 10 years?

Anna Shepard

However much you hope that the food crisis will go away, it's difficult to ignore this week's headlines warning us that the era of cheap food is over. But which of the staples in our shopping basket will be worst hit?

The general picture is that most items will go up, some more significantly than others. With oil at $117 a barrel and rising, so are the costs rising of the three Fs of farming: feed, fuel and fertiliser. “We're in a unique situation in which numerous problems are coming together,” says Tim Lang, Professor of Food Policy at City University. We're not just facing rising oil prices and water shortages, but the changing dietary habits of the developing world as it becomes richer, combined with land being used to provide crops for fuel rather than food, and climate change bringing drought to countries such as Australia.

There's no doubt that we're going to have to spend more on food. And yet, compared to other parts of the world, we're lucky. We spend 13 per cent of our household budget on food, down from 30 per cent, 50 years ago. For a family in the developing world, food is likely to be between 50 and 75 per cent of the total, according to the World Bank. What's more, in poorer countries, people buy raw ingredients, so if the price of corn doubles, that seriously affects their buying power.

But there is another side. Not only is the EU already backing down on biofuels, but some economists argue that the price of raw materials will be regulated by market forces. The theory is this: if farmers respond by growing more staple crops and leaving less land fallow, production will increase, thus lowering prices.

Meanwhile, supermarkets will compete to keep prices low. This could have ethical repercussions, cautions Evan Fraser, a senior lecturer in sustainable development at Leeds University. “Consumer instinct is to want to keep food cheap,” he says. “But usually this is achieved by squeezing producers.”

Here we show you what the food is your basket might cost in ten years' time.

CHICKEN

There is likely to be a significant price increase in the traditional centrepiece of the Sunday roast. Chicken, as a 100 per cent grain-fed animal, is at the mercy of soaring grain prices, which have increased 50 per cent in the past six months. The rise is in response to factors such as drought in Australia, the rise in affluence encouraging increasing numbers of consumers in the developing world to eat meat, and crops being grown for biofuels rather than food. As 60 per cent of the cost of a chicken is its feed, grain will have a significant impact on what we pay.

BEEF

The United Nations estimates that it takes an average of 8kg of grain to produce 1kg of beef. As most British beef is fed on pastures during the summer, beef might avoid the worst of rising grain prices, which have doubled in the past year. “Stick with British grass-fed beef and you're making a green choice as well as one that might remain immune to grain prices,” says Evan Fraser, a sustainablility expert at Leeds University. Beef from the United States is likely to be worse hit since it is intensively reared on large quantities of feed.

GM TINNED TOMATOES

Rising food prices may make genetically-modified food more popular. “Until now there has been the sense that we can do without GM methods,” says Giles Oldroyd, of the John Innes Centre. “But with rising food prices, we will appreciate that if this is a way to increase yields and keep prices down, it is worth pursuing.” Drought and insect-resistant crops are being developed that have the potential to combat climate problems in the developing world.

COFFEE

Coffee reserves are at their lowest point since records began, so prepare to fork out more for your morning latte. The first and biggest impact of countries such as China and India growing richer is a switch from a starch-based diet to a meat-based one. Next will be a sharp rise in demand for coffee and chocolate, increasing competition for the global supply. In Vietnam, for example, coffee consumption has risen 200 per cent over the past few years.

APPLES

Once oil becomes scarce, fuel prices will rise significantly and shipping fruit across the world will become less financially viable, encouraging us to eat locally grown produce. Exactly when this will happen is hotly disputed. The oil industry says that peak oil prices may be 30 years away, but some oil experts argue that we've reached them already. Until oil becomes considerably scarcer, it may continue to be as cheap to buy an apple from New Zealand as one from Somerset.

WINE

It is tax that affects the cost of wine, far more than anything to do with the raw ingredients. Even a series of bad grape harvests would have little impact on overall prices. When you buy a bottle of wine, £2.47 is tax, the remaining amount covers the bottling and transportation,as well as ingredients. However, some market analysts believe that thanks to global warming, we may be drinking Yorkshire wine by 2018.

MILK

While this may come as good news to dairy farmers, consumers can expect to be paying more for their pints. Already in the past 12 months prices have risen 20p, again owing to the increased cost of cow feed. In the past decade supermarkets have pushed down the price of milk, which has resulted in an exodus of farmers from the UK dairy industry. So, as less milk is being produced, prices inevitably go up.

EGGS

In the past nine months the price of eggs has increased by 34 per cent in the UK, as they are equally dependent on rising grain prices as chicken feed. The pattern will continue, according to Giles Oldroyd, at the John Innes Centre. He claims that the practice of intensively rearing chickens will continue, but that the days of the £2 chicken are over.

READYMEALS

According to Mintel research, the growth of the readymeals market has slowed over the past few years, due to growing health concerns. This is expected to continue. However, processed foods will have an easier time avoiding price increases. “What you're paying for is mostly packaging, transport, marketing, freezing and other things,” says Fraser. “The raw ingredients are only a fraction of the overall cost.” If they go up, the increase can be absorbed by cutting costs in other stages of the supply chain.

BREAD

The price of your daily loaf will rise, but not as dramatically as you might expect. Global wheat prices have doubled in the past year, but wheat accounts for only 13 per cent of the cost of bread. The rest of the cost is other ingredients (about 20 per cent): packaging, advertising and transportation. Leading retailers who know that it is important to control the price of staples will work hard to absorb higher bread production costs, even if it means squeezing producers.

RICE

Expect to be eating less of this basic foodstuff, says Evan Fraser, of Leeds University. Blame a decline in global exports - global supplies have been outstripping demand for the past few year - which is already under way. The rice-producing countries in Asia, worried that prices will rise and keen to keep their supplies to feed their own population, are clamping down on the amount that they export. Already India exports only basmati rice and Vietnam is cutting back its rice exports.

VEGETABLES

Compared with meat and other grain-related foodstuffs, vegetables may seem relatively inexpensive, says Peter Ayton, of the market analyst Mintel. Research indicates that sales of fruit and veg have been star performers, growing steadily over the past few years. Mintel predicts that this will continue, due as much to our interest in healthy eating as reasonably stable prices. In the longer term, rising oil prices combined with water shortages are likely to increase costs. Most vegetable production needs nitrogen fertiliser, which is energy-intensive, and plenty of water.

Polar bears 'at risk' in Canada

2008-04-28T03:17:00.000-07:00

Canada's polar bears are at risk from hunting and melting ice in the Arctic

Polar bears in Canada are at risk from climate change but not threatened with extinction, a panel of experts has advised the Canadian government.

The government should develop a plan to protect the country's estimated 15,000 polar bears, the panel said.

The plight of the polar bear has long concerned environmentalists.

The animals face loss of habitat on two fronts, the panel said - hunting, and melting ice in the Arctic, which is widely blamed on climate change.

While recognising both problems, the panel found that Canada's polar bear population was not declining enough to place it in the most serious category as an endangered species.

Instead, it has been classified as a species of special concern.

'At risk'

"Based on the best available information at hand, there was insufficient reason to think that the polar bear was at imminent risk of extinction," said Jeff Hutchings, the panel's chairman.

"That's not to say that it's not in trouble. A special concern species is a species at risk in Canada and requires legislative action."

Canada's environment minister, John Baird, is obliged to accept the government-commissioned report's findings and address threats to the animal's survival, including climate change.

But a management plan for Canada's polar bears will not be required until 2014 - by which time some scientists believe the summer sea ice in the Arctic may have completely disappeared.

Industry bosses head gas-emissions panel

2008-04-28T03:14:00.000-07:00

The province will determine this fall how to meet federal requirements that all new oilsands and coal-fired power plants opening after 2011 must be ready to capture their greenhouse gas emissions and store them underground, Energy Minister Mel Knight says.

He announced Thursday former Syncrude president Jim Carter will head an industry-dominated panel that will sketch a roadmap for carbon capture, a cornerstone of the provincial climate-change plan.

Some energy officials, like Carter's fellow panelist Epcor CEO Don Lowry, have said the Harper government's recent 2012 target seems severe, although some major oilsands firms have already been designing carbon-capture systems as part of their new plants.

The council includes six other current energy-sector leaders including EnCana CEO Randy Eresman, as well as two senior federal bureaucrats, three provincial officials and only one outsider -- Mike Percy, dean of University of Alberta's business school.

After two major panels told the province and Ottawa in recent months how it can forge ahead with taking the technology mainstream, this new one will be more of an implementation team, devising rules, timelines and government incentives to create the capture and underground storage systems. It will also determine where in Alberta the gas should be piped.

The oilpatch and electricity sectors are hoping for massive government investment into the technology, since the capture, pipeline and storage networks will carry multibillion-dollar price tags that companies are loath to shoulder themselves. A recent federal-provincial panel said both levels of government should pay a combined $2 billion.

The government hasn't committed anything, although the budget this week announced $574 million over three years for climate-change measures, mostly from industry emission fines or federal grants. It's widely expected that most of the money will go toward carbon capture, a technique that some other countries use and that many environmental groups embrace.

Carter argued that the governments which reap taxes and economic benefits from energy firms should help.

"Everybody benefits from this -- government and industry -- and we have to see this as a joint effort going forward," he said.

A provincial press release today boasts that carbon sequestration will be "Canada's largest contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions." That's based on the notion that oilsands expansions would lift Alberta's overall emissions much more dramatically if it wasn't capturing the carbon dioxide and piping 139 megatonnes of it underground to substantially cut the sector's emissions levels by 139 megatonnes by 2050.

By that year, the province expects its greenhouse-gas output will be 14 per cent below where it was in 2005, a target Premier Ed Stelmach bills as reasonable but environmental groups and other critics say is woefully inadequate to combat global warming.

US Congress reaches deal on farm bill

2008-04-28T03:12:00.001-07:00

“Today the principal farm bill negotiators came together on a bipartisan level to reach a tentative agreement on the agriculture policy that will make the final farm bill a strong one,” said Tom Harkin, the Iowa Democrat who chairs the Senate committee on agriculture, nutrition and forestry.

US Congress reaches deal on farm bill

2008-04-28T03:12:00.000-07:00

Scientists say polar bears at risk, but threat not imminent

2008-04-28T03:09:00.000-07:00

A scientific panel Friday urged Canada to act to safeguard the Canadian polar bear, which it recommended designating as a species "of special concern" but not one imminently threatened with extinction.

The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) "has reassessed the polar bear as a species of special concern ... a species at risk in Canada ... (and) in trouble," said panel chairman Jeffrey Hutchings.

"This is a species that is highly sensitive to human activities," he told reporters.

"In some respects, the polar bear is close to meeting some of the criteria (for designation as "threatened") ... in terms of the magnitude of population decline in parts of the bear's range."

But, he added, "Based on the best available information at hand, there was insufficient reason to believe that it is at imminent danger of extinction."

The category for a species "of special concern" is among the lowest in COSEWIC's catalogue of risk assessments with "endangered" topping the list for animals facing imminent extinction.

At its April 20-25 meeting this week in Yellowknife, COSEWIC assessed the status of 31 species, including the polar bear, spotted owl, Western chorus frog and Vancouver Island marmot.

In its assessment, COSEWIC noted that polar bear populations are declining in some areas, are stable in others, but are increasing in some parts. The total population in Canada, where two-thirds of the world's polar bears live, is estimated at 15,500.

The primary threats to the polar bear, said Hutchings, "are over-harvesting in the waters between Baffin Island and Greenland, a decline of summer sea ice in southern parts of its range, and oil and gas development."

But he said the current modeling is unable to determine exactly how much of an impact retreating Arctic ice is having on the bear.

Canada's Environment Minister John Baird now has until November to accept COSEWIC's recommendation for the designation, reject it or ask for a further review.

In a statement, he said he would outline in August how the government will proceed, after receiving COSEWIC's final report.

If he accepts COSEWIC's recommendation, the government must prepare a conservation plan addressing threats to the bear and its habitat.

Canadian environment ministers rejected previous COSEWIC assessments in 1991, 1999 and 2002, citing concerns about insufficient or outdated data, and asked for more research.

Baird said on Friday the government "believes that the polar bear is an iconic symbol of Canada. As such, we also believe we have a responsibility to ensure its population is strong and its future is certain."

"This government cares about the future of the polar bear and as minister of the environment, I am committed to action," he said.

Wednesday, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) warned in a new study that Arctic sea ice is melting "significantly faster" than predicted and is approaching a point of no return, with dire consequences for the polar bear.

"Previous models had predicted that melting sea ice would mean some polar bear populations could become extinct by 2050. The new evidence points to even earlier regional extinctions," said Peter Ewins, director of species conservation at WWF-Canada.

In total, COSEWIC assessed 16 animal, bird and plant species on Friday as endangered, four as threatened and four, including the polar bear, as a special concern.

Three species, including the polar bear, a plant and lichen were deemed threatened due to climate change.

The beach pinweed, a plant found in coastal dunes in eastern New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, was said to be at risk from high storm surges.

And the seaside bone, lichen which grows on pines on the southern tip of Vancouver Island in westernmost British Columbia, is threatened by the loss of host trees during winter storms, COSEWIC said.

A higher frequency of storms on both coasts has been linked to global warming.

The US Fish and Wildlife Service is expected to make its own recommendation on the polar bear, found in the northwest state of Alaska, in June

'An Inconvenient Truth'

2008-04-28T03:05:00.000-07:00

Rivers Running Dry

A water crisis is impending. In a new book, Jeffrey Sachs outlines easy, low-cost ways to avoid disaster.

GALLERY

The World's Endangered Lakes

Climate change, increased demand, pollution and other hazards are threatening bodies of water around the globe. A look at lakes that are most at risk.

Greenpeace founder now backs nuclear power

2008-04-28T03:02:00.001-07:00

Greenpeace founder Patrick Moore says there is no proof global warming is caused by humans, but it is likely enough that the world should turn to nuclear power - a concept tied closely to the underground nuclear testing his former environmental group formed to oppose.

The chemistry of the atmosphere is changing, and there is a high-enough risk that "true believers" like Al Gore are right that world economies need to wean themselves off fossil fuels to reduce greenhouse gases, he said.

"It's like buying fire insurance," Moore said. "We all own fire insurance even though there is a low risk we are going to get into an accident."

The only viable solution is to build hundreds of nuclear power plants over the next century, Moore told the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday. There isn't enough potential for wind, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal or other renewable energy sources, he said.

With development of coal-fired electric generation stopped cold over greenhouse gases, the only alternative to nuclear power for producing continuous energy at the levels needed is natural gas. But climate change isn't the only reason to move away from fossil fuels.

Fossil fuels also are a major health threat. "Coal causes the worst health impacts of anything we are doing today," Moore said.

Plus, uranium can be found within the United States and also comes in large quantities from Canada and Australia. Nuclear Power reduces the reliance on supplies in dangerous places including the Middle East, he said.

Moore spoke at the chamber breakfast after an appearance in Idaho Falls Tuesday night that attracted 300 people. He also spoke to the Idaho Environmental Forum in Boise, all sponsored by the Partnership for Science and Technology.

He represents the Clean Air and Safe Energy Coalition, a nuclear energy-backed group promoting reactors for electric energy generation. He began his career as a leader of Greenpeace fighting nuclear testing and working to save whales.

In recent years, he has taken on causes unpopular with his former group, like old-growth logging, keeping polyvinyl chlorides and now nuclear energy.

He says his change of heart comes from his background in science and a different approach to sustainability.

He sees a need for maintaining technologies that are not harmful while fixing or replacing those that are harmful.

"We don't believe we have been making too much electricity," he said. "We believe we've been making energy with the wrong technologies."

His critics, like Andrea Shipley, executive director of the Snake River Alliance, say he has simply sold out.

"The only reason Patrick Moore is backing something as unsafe and risky as nuclear power is he is being paid by the nuclear industry to do so," Shipley said.

Global warming slows weed invasion

2008-04-28T02:58:00.000-07:00

Important native grasslands are threatened by climate change. (ABC News: David Hudspeth)

Tasmanian scientists have discovered a possible benefit to global warming.

In 50 years, it is expected our climate will be two degrees warmer with elevated levels of carbon dioxide.

The School of Plant Science at the University of Tasmania has simulated those conditions so they can see how global warming will affect important biosystems.

The seven-year study by the University of Tasmania has found climate change can slow the invasion of some types of weeds threatening native grasslands.

Dr Mark Hovenden from the School of Plant Science says it has been predicted that increasing levels of carbon dioxide will promote the growth of weeds.

But he says higher temperatures could change that.

"When you add warming to an experiment as well, the warming actually knocks the weeds out very strongly," he said.

"The type of weeds that we're talking about are the big problem weeds for grasslands across the country and these are the introduced flat weeds like dandelions and plantagos."

But it is not all good news.

A carbon dioxide-rich environment increases productivity, but only if there is substantial summer rain, and predictions point towards worsening summer droughts.

"It's highly unlikely that carbon dioxide's goinf to be the panacea that people see it," says Dr Hovenden.

Some of the findings are being applied to dairy pastures in Tasmania's north.

Mark Smith from DairyTas says adapting to climate change is a high priority for the industry.

"The scientific evidence is fairly clear, there are going to be some impacts through temperature and rainfall changes in the next 20 to 30 years," he said.

But Mr Smith says the industry is remaining optomistic.

"There's no panic in this, from a dairy industry point of view, but it's making sure that we're at the forefront with the scientists, knowing what the likely impacts are going to be," he said.

The research team is seeking funding to continue its studies for another five years.

We must put the heat to our politicians on global warming

2008-04-28T02:55:00.000-07:00

Earth Day has come and gone again. And again, people are reflecting on the tremendous pressures we put on the earth and the environment and what they can do to live a greener more sustainable life.

Perhaps this year, we should also reflect on Canada's stubborn insistence on being a part of the climate change problem rather than part of the solution.

Earth Day was created nearly 40 years ago to inspire awareness of the earth and appreciation for our environment.

Millions of Canadians took part last year, joining an estimated half a billion people worldwide.

Much of the Canadian interest focused on calling for action on climate change.

Public opinion in Canada has consistently favoured taking action on climate change. Support has grown even stronger since the federal government signed the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 and committed the country to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions to six per cent below 1990 levels by 2012.

Canadians were rightly proud when the federal government signed and then ratified the Kyoto treaty.

But somehow that public pride and concern about climate change has not convinced successive governments to make progress on reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.

By 2005, Canada's emissions had risen to 30 per cent above 1990 levels.

In response to the public's desire for action on global warming and Canada's rapidly escalating greenhouse gas emissions, the current government produced "Turning the Corner" that falls drastically short of what is urgently needed.

Not only does this half-measure of weasel words and soft targets not meet our legally binding commitments to cut GHG emissions, it will certainly not achieve the deep reductions scientists say are needed to prevent truly catastrophic climate change impacts.

It is a case of government actively planning to fail the most critical challenge facing our planet today.

Provincially, only Manitoba and Quebec have agreed to meet their share of Canada's Kyoto commitment. No jurisdiction in Canada, federal or provincial, has agreed to reduce its emissions 25 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 - the minimum reduction the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said is necessary to avoid disastrous impacts.

What does this lack of progress mean for Canadians who support Earth Day and who want to be part of the climate change solution?

It means making a pledge to change your personal habits and reduce your carbon footprint.

Turn out the lights when you leave the room and caulk those drafty windows. Walk to the store and buy locally grown produce - we must do everything we can to lower our personal emissions and every bit counts.

But these are voluntary measures and the future of the planet can't be left to individual goodwill. The biggest lifestyle change you can make following this Earth Day is to turn up the heat on your elected politicians. Climate change is a global problem that requires a united global response and requires government action on a major scale.

It requires bold leadership and government regulation that will make significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

It is about limiting the output of Canada's largest emitters and using every carrot and stick available to make these cuts in short order.

If no jurisdiction in Canada has committed itself to make the cuts necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts then how do we get our elected representatives to move? It is time to exercise our responsibilities as citizens and engage in democracy in order to achieve those things we want for ourselves, our children and our communities.

Democracy is not a spectator sport. It goes without saying that the tar sands oil companies, the automobile industry and all the large emitters of GHGs are exercising their democratic rights with governments - it's time for individuals to do the same.

Because of this Earth Day, commit to a lifestyle change that will speak volumes: Call your member of Parliament, let him or her know you want effective action on climate change and that you support politicians who take action.

Then let them know you will be paying close attention to their position on climate change.

Bruce Cox is the executive director of Greenpeace Canada.

Global Warming? An Open Letter to John McCain

2008-04-28T02:54:00.000-07:00

Dear Mr. McCain

It seems that some leading Republicans such as yourself, Newt Gingrich, and even President Bush, have accepted the premise of Anthropogenic Global Warming – that man is spewing millions of tons of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere each year, and that this is causing an unprecedented rise in earth's temperature that threatens us all. And, if we spend enough money to reduce CO2 emissions, we can change it.

I urge you to reconsider. More than 19,000 scientists have signed the Global Warming Petition to protest the Kyoto accord, and declare their opposition to the theory that man's CO2 emissions are causing Global Warming (the Global Warming Petition at http://www.oism.org/pproject/). Written and sponsored by Dr. Frederick Seitz, past president of the National Academy of Sciences, the Petition reads:

Global Warming Petition

"We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan, in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases, is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of Earth's climate. Morever, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide [willl] produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth."

There is certainly no "consensus." The IPCC Report on Global Warming (2007) from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that it was "reviewed" by 600 authors from 40 countries, and over 620 experts and governments. The 19,000 scientists who have signed the Global Warming Petition outnumber those who have "reviewed" the IPCC report by more than 15 to 1.

The illustrations below are from www.GlobalWarmingArt.com, a website created to graphically illustrate the evidence for Global Warming Theory, and since they were created by proponents of Global Warming Theory, I will adopt them, and stipulate to their accuracy, and explain very simply why this evidence produced by the Global Warming proponents proves them wrong.

The Global Warming theorists always point to rises in temperature (by fractions of a degree) within the last 200 years, or the last 1,000 years, but such a small sample of climate history is not historically representative, and is not a large enough data set to be scientifically meaningful. It's cherry-picking the evidence. To be intellectually honest, we must look at all the evidence we have, not just a small fraction of it. To be scientifically meaningful, we must look to the long history of climate changes, as shown in the six illustrations below.

Exhibit 1. Holocene Temperature Variations: The IPCC Is Wrong

Here we see that the present Warm Era (the Holocene) began almost 12,000 years ago. It peaked circa 8,000 years ago at 1.5 degrees above the baseline, a full 1 degree warmer than now, at the beginning of what climatologists call the Holocene Optimum.

According to the IPCC Report on Global Warming, rising CO2 causes Global Warming, and CO2 now is higher than at any time in the last 650,000 years. If this were true, then it would be warmer now than at any time in the last 650,000 years. But it is not. 8,000 years ago, CO2 was 120 parts per million lower than now, and the climate was warmer than now. Now, CO2 is higher, but the climate is cooler. Thus we know that the IPCC's global warming theory is false. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is wrong. Openly and obviously wrong. Clearly and conspicuously wrong. Irrefutably wrong.

We also know that prior to 12,000 years ago, sea level was 400 feet lower than now. Most of that water was bound up in vast glaciers on the northern continents, in some places as much as three miles deep. From 12,000 to 6,000 years ago, there was so much glacial melting that sea levels rose 400 feet to their present level. That is, before the present era of Global Warming began, 12,000 years ago, sea level was 400 feet lower than now.

Before Global Warming began, twelve thousand years ago, you could walk from Alaska to Siberia on the Bering Land Bridge, or Beringia, a thousand miles of dry land, north to south, as large as Australia, now under the cold ocean of the north Pacific, the Bering Sea. You could walk from England to France on dry land under what is now the English Channel.

Exhibit 2. The Surface Temperature Record

Here we see the recent trend line rising 1/2 degree (0.5 degrees) from 1980 to present, with temperature spiking circa 1998 to 0.7 degrees above the 1980 benchmark, and cooler since then. One half a degree. In San Francisco, the temperature can rise or fall by half a degree in a minute. And, for most of us, a half degree change in temperature is too small to notice.

Exhibit 3. Reconstructed Temperatures: Last 1,000 Years

While this looks fairly "dramatic," this is only because the scale of the graph is so narrow. It is only 1.6 degrees from the bottom to the top of the chart, barely enough climate change for most of us to feel. From the benchmark of 0 at 1,000 CE (for Common Era, or AD, as we used to say, one thousand years ago), the chart only shows a range of 0.6 degrees up, and 1 degree down. Since 1,000 years ago, global temperature fell 0.9 degrees to the bottom of the Little Ice Age, four hundred years ago, and then it began rising, and has risen about 1.3 degrees to reach 0.4 degrees above the benchmark of 0 from 1,000 years ago. Thus, we see that our climate today is a trivial 0.4 degrees warmer than it was 1,000 years ago, before the Little Ice Age. Less than one-half of one degree. And a full degree cooler than at the peak of the Holocene Optimum, eight thousand years ago (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 4. Ice Age Temperature Changes

Let’s look at some more history. Over the last 450,000 years we see five episodes of "Global Warming" above the 0 baseline. The previous four eras of Global Warming, approximately 120,000 years, 240,000 years, 330,000 years, and 400,000 years before now, were warmer than now, with very long intervening ice ages much cooler than now. The next ice age will be disastrous for agriculture in the northern half of the northern hemisphere. And, unless the long natural cycle of global warming and ice ages is somehow broken, the coming of the next ice age is a matter of when, not if. Perhaps we should be grateful for Global Warming while we have it.

It won't last forever.

In order to be credible science, Global Warming Theory must explain (a) what caused the last 5 eras of Global Warming, and (b) what caused the last 5 eras of Global Cooling. If it does not do so it is not good science, but merely opinion, merely speculation, an unproven hypothesis, that would not be admissible as evidence in any court under the Federal Rules of Evidence. To my knowledge, it does not do so.

To be admissible evidence in court, scientific evidence must be "generally accepted in the scientific community," as the U.S. Supreme Court held in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 509 US 570 (1993). Otherwise it is deemed too speculative and unproven to be reliable, and therefore inadmissible. Since there are many thousands of scientists who reject Global Warming Theory, it cannot be seen as "generally accepted science." It is highly disputed science, a highly disputed, unproven theory. It is my opinion that this theory, and the crystal-ball computer models that purport to predict the future, the future of global climate changes, are not admissible as evidence to prove that they are true, unless they can first be proven to be "generally accepted science."

Are we to base national climate and energy policy on a theory that is not even sufficiently proven and accepted to be admissible as evidence at trial, in a judicial proceeding, in a court of law?

If we were to do a computer model of future climate changes based on extrapolations and inductions from historic patterns and cycles of climate change, it would very likely tell us that the earth will soon enter another long era of Global Cooling, another periodic Ice Age.

Exhibit 5. Five Million Years of Climate Change

Looking back five million years, we see that (a) there have been dozens of cycles of global warming and global cooling over the past five million years, (b) the swings between the extremes of global warming and global cooling in each cycle have been growing more dramatic, and (c) there has been a steady long-term cooling trend over the last five million years. Earth's climate, in the long trend, is growing colder, not warmer.

Exhibit 6. Sixty Five Million Years of Climate Change

Here we see (below) that over 65 million years global temperature has risen and then fallen dramatically from the Eocene Optimum, some 50 million years ago, not in a straight line, but in a general, long term cooling trend. Unless this long trend is somehow reversed, the earth is slowly cooling, not warming.

Thus it becomes clear that:

(a) The present era of Global Warming (the Holocene Era) began some 12,000 years ago, long before human civilization or modern technology. It was warmest circa 8,000 years ago, and has been slowly getting cooler every since, with some short term warming cycles, but a long term cooling trend.

(b) The present era of Global Warming is right on schedule in the long cycle of Global Warming and Global Cooling approximately every 120,000 years.

(c) The present Global Warming is cooler than each of the four previous warm eras, and the climate has been on a long-term cooling trend since the Eocene Optimum, some 50 million years ago.

(d) We see per the IPCC report that CO2 is higher now than in the last 650,000 years, yet during that time there have been at least four (4) eras of Global Warming with temperatures higher than now.

This fact conclusively disproves the hypothesis that rising CO2 causes global warming. If the premise that CO2 causes global warming were true, then the climate now would be warmer than at any other time in the last 650,000 years.

But it is not.

Let us also note that the CO2 rise from 280 ppm (parts per million) to 380 ppm at stated in the IPCC Report is a rise from a mere 0.028% of the atmosphere to a mere 0.038% of the atmosphere. Our atmosphere is more than 99.9% nitrogen, oxygen, and argon, and less than 0.1% everything else. At 380 ppm, or 0.038%, CO2 is less than 4% of 1% of the atmosphere.

Over the last 100 years, the increase in CO2 has been a trivial 0.01% of the atmosphere, or 1% of 1% of atmospheric composition, one part in ten thousand. To visualize this, imagine that you have a swimming pool that holds 10,000 gallons of water. Then you add one gallon. That is how much atmospheric CO2 has increased in the last 100 years, according to the IPCC. Not much.

The earth's climate has been changing continuously for millions of years, as far back as we can reconstruct it, and doubtless long before that, for as long as the earth has had a climate to change. Nature changes continuously everywhere we look. Nothing in nature stays the same. Our contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere is truly trivial, less than one part in ten thousand, less than 1% of 1% – even if we assume that all of the CO2 increase in the last 100 years has been due to us, which may not be true. Has it been proven?

Before the United States makes enormous changes in public policy and spends hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars to "stop climate change," don't you think we should demand some pretty convincing proof that the climate change we see is not natural? Is the climate change we see really man-made, and can we really change it? Or is it the unchangeable natural cycle of Global Warming and Global Cooling?

Children concerned about global warming

2008-04-28T02:53:00.000-07:00

Children from across Jakarta attended an Earth Day festival held Saturday by Bina Nusantara (Binus) School in Simprug, South Jakarta.

James, a first grader at an elementary school, was one of many students involved in a series of competitions held on the Binus campus.

He sat among dozens of children designing pictures to promote awareness of environmentalism. On his paper was the blue-and-green sphere of planet Earth floating in space.

"The theme is 'Going Green', that's why I'm drawing our planet."

The one-day event featured six contests, including singing, drawing, dancing and music, involving more than 100 kindergartners and elementary school students.

The school's public relations chief, Adilah, said the school wanted to raise awareness of global warming, especially among younger generations.

"We are trying to stimulate awareness on this issue among young children, in the hope they will embrace green lifestyles and become involved in efforts to preserve the environment," she said.

Another drawing contestant, Gerdan, of Global Mandiri School in Cibubur, Bogor, said he had never heard of Earth Day, but knew ways to help save the Earth.

"Bottles. Recycling used bottles can save the earth."

Gerdan's teacher, Forina, who accompanied her students to the event, said her school taught a number of ways for students to live greener lives.

"They learn that recycling is important, but also easy. In our school, we invite our students to bring used plastic bottles from their homes each week to be recycled," she said.

Voracious human activities are thought by many to be the cause of rising temperatures, changing weather patterns and rises in sea-levels.

Last December in Bali, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change outlined a roadmap for nations to overcome the problem.

In response to the meeting, many companies and residents have planted trees in their premises and neighborhoods, and two weeks ago, thousands attended a three-day convention called Green Festival held in the city, which provided information and tips for residents on how to conserve energy and promote a greener Jakarta. (dre)

Debate Global Warming

2008-02-08T06:12:00.001-08:00

There are many people who love staying outdoors and enjoying the fresh air. For these people there are no thoughts about global warming. However there are other people who think that we as a human race need to wake up and take some action. Likewise there are still others who are of the opinion that a phenomenon like global warming is a hoax. For both of these groups of people on the debate global warming continues.

When you look at the different facts which are presented in numerous magazines, on the television and on the internet you can why this debate global warming is still going on. Since there are different reasons which are put forward about the causes of global warming you should expect that some of the opposing debates will be about those industries.

Currently you can find articles which present both sides of the argument. You should read these articles with an open mind. Besides seeing these argument articles the debate global warming viewpoints are also of interest. Here you will find the opinions of different people in the world.

Some of these people will present scientific facts to back their points of view. Seeing these facts you need to realize that even these facts are taken with an eye to one side of the global warming debate.

Sometimes the debate global warming tends to cloud the rational mind. This means that instead of people working together to find out what is really occurring in our world, they tend to argue about what they think is right and wrong.

Besides looking at these facts you can see how the scientific community reacts to global warming. The scientific community uses various devices to measure the atmospheric changes which occur. You can see the difference in the debate global warming myths as opposed to global warming facts.

While all of these are interesting they rarely present us with an accurate picture about what is occurring. You will need to be open minded when you see and hear about all of these debates. The numerous stories that we hear about global warming may help us to think more favorably about conserving the natural resources around us.

Perhaps in one regard this debate global warming is of use as we need to understand that many of the resources that we use are limited in amounts. By understanding what is at the bottom of these arguments we can halt the debate global warming and start taking action.

Causes Of Global Warming

2008-02-08T06:11:00.000-08:00

As we go about our daily lives we seldom think how the way that we live affects the environment around us. While we may think for a few minutes that we need to be more environmentally conscious there are very few of us who actually take the time which is needed. The different reports about global warming need our consideration as some of the causes of global warming are caused by us.

You may ask how this is possible. The answers are all staring us in the face if we just choose to look at them. The first place to look for some of the causes of global warming is in our cities. Whenever you drive on the roads your car is sending out emissions of carbon monoxide. You just have to multiple this effect with that of the numerous other vehicles to understand that driving a fuel engine vehicle does contribute to global warming.

Another way that we contribute towards the causes of global warming is by deforestation. When we were younger we were taught that the trees in the forests, jungles and rainforests were the lungs of the world. By cutting down large amounts of trees the curative abilities of these areas are decreased.

This effect happens because trees need carbon dioxide to live. When large tracts of trees are cut down in one place the balance is lost. The remaining trees can’t absorb all of the carbon which is floating in the atmosphere. Due to this fact the carbon rises in volume in the atmosphere. This is also why deforestation can be seen as one of the causes of global warming.

Besides these factors chemicals like methane and nitrous oxide are also causes of global warming. These chemicals while in small amounts are not enough to cause damage to the atmosphere and environment. They can be considered as causes of global warming when they are used for various man needed schemes.

These schemes include the rearing of domestic animals such as cows in a congregated mass. The growth of rice in flooded paddy fields is also one such cause. The other chemical reasons for global warming can be seen in the artificial fertilizers that we use.

When all of these actions are taken separately you think there must be a mistake in thinking that these are some of the causes of global warming. There is however lots of evidence which supports this case. In order to stop the disastrous effects of global warming you should look at the different global warming causes and see what steps you can take to prevent this fact.

Climate Change May Affect Length Of Respiratory Infection Season

2008-02-08T06:09:00.000-08:00

Rising global temperatures over the past two decades may be responsible for a shortened season of a serious respiratory illness in the United Kingdom, according to an article in the March 1 issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases, now available online.Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause particularly severe lower respiratory tract infections in infants and young children, sometimes resulting in pneumonia. Like the flu, RSV has a seasonal pattern, infecting the majority of people during autumn and winter.

Author Gavin Donaldson, PhD, of the University College London, examined the relationship between the RSV season and the rise in temperatures in central England from 1981 to 2004, and found that the RSV season ended earlier each year as temperatures increased. The illness season-measured by laboratory isolation of RSV and emergency room admissions due to RSV-was shortened by about three weeks per degree Celsius rise in annual mean daily temperature.

The link between respiratory disease and temperature is mysterious. "People know that there is a relationship, but don't know what's causing it," Dr. Donaldson said. Staying indoors in chilly weather might result in a higher infection rate due to our close proximity to other people. Cold air might enhance viruses' survival or affect our bodies' ability to fight off infection. "It is known that as the temperature gets colder, a lot of respiratory infections increase... There must be some link with the temperature or the season to explain precisely why this is happening," Dr. Donaldson said. However, he added, "there's no clear evidence of what the mechanism is, nor has it been shown that other respiratory illness seasons, like influenza's, have shortened due to climate change."

Global warming seems to be increasing the number of infections from other organisms, such as those that lead to food poisoning, like Salmonella and Campylobacter, Dr. Donaldson said. If global temperatures continue to rise, scientists may yet learn how much of a correlation exists between a changing climate and our health.

###

Founded in 1979, Clinical Infectious Diseases publishes clinical articles twice monthly in a variety of areas of infectious disease, and is one of the most highly regarded journals in this specialty. It is published under the auspices of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA). Based in Alexandria, Virginia, IDSA is a professional society representing about 8,000 physicians and scientists who specialize in infectious diseases.

Scientists Concerned About Effects Of Global Warming On Infectious Diseases"Environmental changes have always been associated with the appearance of n

2008-02-08T06:06:00.000-08:00

As the Earth's temperatures continue to rise, we can expect a significant change in infectious disease patterns around the globe. Just exactly what those changes will be remains unclear, but scientists agree they will not be for the good."Environmental changes have always been associated with the appearance of new diseases or the arrival of old diseases in new places. With more changes, we can expect more surprises," says Stephen Morse of Columbia University, speaking May 22, 2007, at the 107th General Meeting of the American Society for Microbiology in Toronto.

In its April 2007 report on the impacts of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that rising temperatures may result in "the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors," and will have "mixed effects, such as the decrease or increase of the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa."

"Diseases carried by insects and ticks are likely to be affected by environmental changes because these creatures are themselves very sensitive to vegetation type, temperature, humidity etc. However, the direction of change -- whether the diseases will increase or decrease -- is much more difficult to predict, because disease transmission involves many factors, some of which will increase and some decrease with environmental change. A combination of historical disease records and present-day ground-based surveillance, remotely sensed (satellite) and other data, and good predictive models is needed to describe the past, explain the present and predict the future of vector-borne infectious diseases," says David Rogers of Oxford University, also speaking at the meeting.

One impact of rising global temperatures, though, can be fairly accurately predicted, says Morse. In the mountains of endemic areas, malaria is not transmitted above a certain altitude because temperatures are too cold to support mosquitoes. As temperatures rise, this malaria line will rise as well.

"One of the first indicators of rising global temperatures could be malaria climbing mountains," says Morse.

Another change could be the flu season. Influenza is a year-round event in the tropics. If the tropical airmass around the Earth's equator expands, as new areas lose their seasons they may also begin to see influenza year-round.

And extreme weather events will also lead to more disease, unless we are prepared. As the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events change, water supplies become more at risk, according Joan Rose of Michigan State University.

"Hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes and just high intensity storms have exacerbated an aging drinking and wastewater infrastructure, enhanced the mixing of untreated sewage and water supplies, re-suspended pathogens from sediments and displaced large populations to temporary shelters. We are at greater risk than ever before of infectious disease associated with increasing extreme weather events," says Rose.

There will also be indirect effects of climate change on infectious disease as well. For instance, says Morse, the effect of global warming on agriculture could lead to significant changes in disease transmission and distribution.

"If agriculture in a particular area begins to fail due drought, more people will move into cities," says Morse. High population densities, especially in developing countries, are associated with an increased transmission of a variety of diseases including HIV, tuberculosis, respiratory diseases (such as influenza) and sexually transmitted diseases.

"I'm worried about climate change and agree that something needs to be done," says Morse. "Otherwise, we can hope our luck will hold out."

Rising Sea level

2008-02-08T06:04:00.001-08:00

TIME GRAPHIC EXHIBIT E: Rising Sea Levels

Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was 1,500 ft. from the North Carolina shoreline when it was built in 1870. By the late 1980s the ocean had crept to within 160 ft., and the lighthouse had to be moved to avoid collapse.

Japanese fortifications were built on Kosrae Island in the southwest Pacific Ocean during World War II to guard against U.S. Marines' invading the beach. Today the fortifications are awash at high tide.

Florida farmland up to 1,000 ft. inland from Biscayne Bay is being infiltrated by salt water, rendering the land too toxic for crops. Salt water is also nibbling at the edges of farms on Maryland¹s Eastern Shore.

Brazilian shoreline in the region of Recife receded more than 6 ft. a year from 1915 to 1950 and more than 8 ft. a year from 1985 to 1995.

Nature's Pain

2008-02-08T06:03:00.002-08:00

KEVIN FLEMING/CORBIS EXHIBIT D: Nature's Pain

Pacific salmon populations fell sharply in 1997 and 1998, when local ocean temperatures rose 6 degrees F.

Polar bears in Hudson Bay are having fewer cubs, possibly as a result of earlier spring ice breakup.

coral reefs suffer from the loss of algae that color and nourish them. The process, called bleaching, is caused by warmer oceans.

Diseases like dengue fever are expanding their reach northward in the U.S. butterflies are relocating to higher latitudes. The Edith¹s Checkerspot butterfly of western North America has moved almost 60 miles north in 100 years.

Wild Weather

2008-02-08T06:03:00.001-08:00

STEWART WRITTLE/AP EXHIBIT C: Wild Weather

Heavy rains in England and Wales made last fall Britain's wettest three-month period on record.

Fires due to dry conditions and record-breaking heat consumed 20% of Samos Island, Greece, last July.

Floods along the Ohio River in March 1997 caused 30 deaths and at least $500 million in property damage.

Hurricane Floyd brought flooding rains and 130-m.p.h. winds through the Atlantic seaboard in September 1999, killing 77 people and leaving thousands homeless.

Effects ---Global warming

2008-02-08T06:01:00.001-08:00

FRANK LANE PICTURE AGENCY/CORBIS EXHIBIT A: Thinning Ice

Antarctica, home to these Adélie penguins, is heating up. The annual melt season has increased up to three weeks in 20 years.

Mount Kilimanjaro has lost 75% of its ice cap since 1912. The ice on Africa's tallest peak could vanish entirely within 15 years.

Lake Baikal in eastern Siberia now freezes for the winter 11 days later than it did a century ago.

Montana will lose all the glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2070 if their retreat continues at the current rate.

Venezuelan mountaintops had six glaciers in 1972. Today only two remain.

THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

2008-02-08T05:59:00.000-08:00

One of the most current and widely discussed factor which could lead to the ultimate end of existence of Earth and man is global warming and its devastating effects. Scientists have asked how fast the Earth is heating up, and how the warming effects on Earth may effect crops and climatic conditions. Several current trends clearly demonstrate that global warming is directly impacting on; rising sea levels, the melting of icecaps, and significant worldwide climatic changes. This paper will discuss the degree of destruction caused by global warming, contributing factors to warming, and finally, discuss what we can do to decrease the current rate of global warming. I would also like to present opposing viewpoints to the effects of the warming process. In my understanding, global warming represents a fundamental threat to all living things on earth.

WHAT IS THE "GREENHOUSE EFFECT" ALL ABOUT?

It is important to understand and discuss the significance of global warming. Global warming is also known as the "Greenhouse effect". The "Greenhouse Earth" is surrounded by a shield of atmospheric gases, rather than a glass or a plastic cover. The air that makes up our atmosphere consists primarily of nitrogen and oxygen molecules (N2 at 78% and O2 at 21%). A large number of "trace gases" make up the remainder of air's composition. Many of these, including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the so called "greenhouse" gases. If you have ever felt the piercing cold of the clear winter night sky and wondered why you feel warmer on a cloudy winter night, you have experienced the atmospheric greenhouse effect firsthand. Physics tell us that any object warmer than absolute zero will radiate energy. Cooler objects emit longer waves (in the infrared region) while hotter ones radiate shorter wavelengths. Our sun, powered by its hot, nuclear fusion reaction, produces radiant energy in the visible and ultraviolet regions with relatively short wavelengths. Of the sunlight that strikes the earth, about 70% is absorbed by the planet and its atmosphere, while the other 30% is immediately reflected. If the earth did not re-radiate most of this newly absorbed energy back into space the world would continue to get warmer. Instead, an energy balance is maintained.

The earth is about 60 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) warmer than it would be if it did not have the atmospheric blanket of greenhouse gases and clouds around it. Clouds and greenhouse gases keep the earth warm. Once warmed, their molecules then radiate a portion of this heat energy back to earth, creating more warming on the surface of our planet. It is this radiation which causes atmospheric gases to move back to earth that scientists call the "greenhouse effect".

Carbon dioxide (CO2) gas generated by man's burning of fossil fuels and the forests is responsible for about half the greenhouse gas warming. Other gases (CFCs, methane, nitrous oxide, tropospheric ozone) are responsible for the rest. Increases in all these gases are due to mankind's explosive population growth over the last century, and increased industrial expansion. Approximately 80% of atmospheric CO2 increases are due to man's use of fossil fuels: oil, coal, and gas. These petroleum-based energy sources first came into use with the burning of coal during Since 1945 petroleum consumption has increased dramatically, due in large part to increased usage of automobiles worldwide, and the substitution of mechanized farm machinery for animal power. "Mankind is in the process of conducting a major, unintentional experiment, that of feeding back into the atmosphere in a short space of geological time the fossils fuels that have slowly accumulated over the past 500 million years." (Refer to graph #1)

Graph 1

Excluded

In 1958, scientists began to measure carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. The site selected for these measurements was on top of the volcanic mountain of Mauna Loa, in Hawaii. CO2 measurements at the Hawaiian site have continued. The instruments show the level of CO2 has been steadily increasing (about 0.4% per year) from a level of 315 parts per million (ppm) in 1958 to 353 ppm in 1990. Clearly, Earth's natural mechanisms for absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere cannot handle the large quantities of CO2 being added by modern man. Scientists believe nearly 1/2 of the CO2 being emitted each year remains in the atmosphere, while the rest is being absorbed by trees and the oceans. As a result, CO2 measurements show a continuing build-up of CO2 greenhouse gases in the air, gases that will eventually lead to more global warming. (Refer to graph #2)

Graph 2

HOW FAST IS THE EARTH HEATING UP?

Much debate in the last five years about the greenhouse effect has centered on interpreting temperature numbers generated at weather stations all over the world. The data from these thermometers are averaged and plotted in attempts to determine just how fast the earth has heated up since the measurements began. There is now no doubt the world is getting warmer. The thermometers show that the world is warmer now than at any time since the measurements started. The year 1990 was the hottest year in the last century. Together with 1991, the years of 1983, 1987, 1988, and 1989, have been measured to be the warmest 6 years in the last hundred years. 1991 was the second warmest year of the past century, perhaps due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo during that year. The ash from the volcano in the upper atmosphere blocks some sunlight to earth, and is expected to generate a temporary two or three year cooling effect. After that time, most ash particles will have settled back to earth, and most scientists expect to see the global warming trend continue.

According to scientists, we can with "99% confidence conclude that current temperatures represent a real warming trend rather than a chance fluctuation over the 30-year period." Most scientists agree that the planet's temperature has risen 0.5 degrees Celsius since 1900, and will continue to increase at an increasing rate. The environment is responding to this warming. For instance, a study of mountain plants in the Alps (Europe), shows that some cold-loving plants are starting to move to higher and cooler altitudes. That is a possible response to increasing temperatures.

CURRENT TRENDS.

The global effects of the greenhouse effect cannot be directly predicted simply because we do not have enough knowledge in the subject. However, we have been able to draw direct connections between certain natural phenomenon that supports the idea that something is changing.

Global warming has great effect on crops and weather conditions around the world. The northern hemisphere contains more land area than the southern hemisphere, and conversely, a lower percentage of the world's oceans. Since oceans absorb more heat than land areas, it is not surprising that most climate models predict faster heating over the northern hemisphere than the global average. In addition, models predict faster temperature increases at higher latitudes. If global warming trends continue, high temperatures everywhere in the US may reduce US agricultural productivity. Northern continental areas are projected to have drier summer soils, due in part to earlier snow melts in the spring, and hotter, more cloudless summers, causing extensive evaporation of ground moisture. In addition, if the inland areas of the northern hemisphere are expected to receive less moisture, then, lake and river levels will be lower. Some reports predict the level of the Great Lakes will drop between 2 and 8 feet. River flows in the western US may be very vulnerable to increase temperatures expected as result of the greenhouse effect.

When many people think of global warming, their first concern is the possible rise of sea levels. With a large number of the world's cities in coastal areas, this is a significant problem. There are two major causes of rising sea levels. First, extra water is produced when ice melts. Secondly, the natural expansion of sea water as it becomes warmer. The range of sea ice around both poles continues to shrink, as it melts. Even with the level of greenhouse gases present today, the earth may warm enough in the next 50 years or so to completely melt the sea ice located on the poles.

Damage from rising seas is very diverse. Buildings and roads close to the water could be flooded and they could suffer damage from hurricanes and tropical storms. "There are good physical reasons to suggest that more intense storms (hurricanes) could result from global warming." Warmer oceans cause more intense storms. Experts believe that global warming could increase the intensity of hurricanes by over 50 percent. Hurricane Andrew's devastation in 1992 set new records. According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the 1990 season was the most active year on their records for combined Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes. Damage caused by future hurricanes to populated areas will be more severe since higher sea levels are predicted for the next century. In addition, as the sea rises, beach erosion takes place, particularly on steep banks. Wetlands are lost as sea levels rise. Another serious problem is the threat of salt water intruding into underground fresh water reserves in coastal areas.

In 1992, a report was published by the United Nations, which proposes that if CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions continue with present trends (which is the case), the coastal plains of Bangladesh and the Netherlands will flood by the year 2100. Furthermore, the islands of the Maldives would completely disappear. This would happen if only a two foot increase in sea level occured.

FOREST DESTRUCTION CREATES MORE HEAT:

Trees play a unique role in the global carbon cycle. They are the largest land-based natural mechanism for removing CO2 from the air. (CO2 is also removed by the oceans and ocean organisms.)

Trees are able to store a large amount of CO2 in their structures. An acre of forest will absorb about 10 times the CO2 amount absorbed by an acre of crop land or grassland. One tree absorbs about 13 pounds of CO2 per year, and each one acre of forest absorbs about 2.8 tons of CO2. However, when trees are burned, the carbon locked in the structure is released into the air in the form of CO2. Today, the shrinking world forests are not able to absorb all the CO2 created by human beings while burning fossil fuels. Everyday over 5500 acres of rain forest are destroyed, and over 50 million acres are destroyed every year. Global CO2 levels rise approximately 0.4 percent each year, to levels not experienced on this planet for millions of years. Planting more trees and reducing timber cuts world-wide will help restore the imbalance, and perhaps buy time as ways are found to reduce world greenhouse gas emissions.

POPULATION GROWTH CONTRIBUTES TO GLOBAL WARMING.

The intellectual powers that we enjoy has enabled us to make effective use of technology and thereby changed the environment. Technology is partly responsible for explosive population growth and responsible for the resulting damage to Earth's resources. The industrial revolution caused a rapid increase in the Population growth, as oil and gas fuels were exploited for our use. There is a clear link between the problems of global warming and overpopulation, as increases in CO2 levels follows growth in population. Presently, we have too many people on Earth, who are using technologies that are destructive for the Earth. We cannot continue to grow, and make use of limited natural resources. (Refer to graph #3)

Graph 3

ECONOMIC ASPECTS:

Global warming is big business. Some economists argue that a warmer climate could benefit certain crops and the farming communities. However, property insurers are predicting that worsening storms caused by global warming could eventually bankrupt the insurance industry. Insurance companies are now trying to form strategic alliances, and pool resources which could cover severe economic loss from climatic changes.

In addition, the costs to implement a worldwide plan to cut the production of CO2 and other gases which contribute to global warming would cost approximately 3 percent of the World's total GDP. However, there is a dispute whether the industrialized world should be responsible for the main economic contributions to clean up this planet. It is important to realize that many less industrialized nations are unable to afford actions to prevent an increase in CO2, and the fact that they have no incentive to reduce the carbon emissions that cause the "greenhouse" effect. Several less industrialized nations argue that the developed world was allowed to use of the nature in creating welfare, and that it is now morally right for them to do the same. I believe that funds dedicated to the former Cold war should be used for world ecology.

OPPOSING VIEW POINTS IS GLOBAL WARMING A THREAT?

Certain scientists believe that global warming is not a threat and the planet is essentially cooling off. They argue that the factors causing the phenomenon and the measurements are not fully understood, and that it is impossible to draw any conclusions whether the warming of the earth is a purely natural occurrence. These people, believe that the trend is a false alarm and that it is not a sign of a fore coming global disaster. In addition, Industrial forces argue that human beings can adapt to the changes caused by global warming, but they refuse to mention anything about the environmental impact of climatic changes.

Other opponents to the Global warming theory believes that most changes are due to the energy of the sun is fluctuating. Large sunspot activity is thought to be partially responsible for the "Little Ice Age" from 1450 to 1850. This climate change is well documented in history with many impacts on civilization in Europe, including famines. The temperature fluctuation was only about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Also, some researchers believe that smoke from the burning of tropical forests and grasslands causes a strong cooling force on the climate. This cooling effect could nearly equal the warming power built by greenhouse gases created by the fires.

Furthermore, in the issue regarding rising sea levels, It is important to realize that the elevations of various coastal land areas are rising and sinking due to geological factors. Thus, the ocean levels may not rise as much as we think, as continents may be sinking.

In addition, some researchers believe that global warming is foreshadowing a coming ice-age. The last ice age occurred as the Earth's climate was warming. In the Arctic regions, more water would evaporate in summer, and fall onto the land as snow in winter. The winters would not be so warm as to melt all of this snow, thus glaciers would grow. Also, some carbon compounds released in the atmosphere may help prevent global warming. These particles reflects sunshine, which is redirected into space.

WHATYOU CAN DO TO DECREASE GLOBAL WARMING.

There are several things which you can do directly after reading this paper. However, some of the actions which we all have to take will slightly decrease your present standards of living.

First, since the largest portion of electricity in the US is produced by burning coal, we should try to cut-down on our demand for electricity. (Refer to graph #4) Coal combustion creates the largest amount of CO2 per energy unit of any fossil fuel. Coal and oil together represent 80% of the US fuel supply used to generate electricity. When we reduce electric power use, we save money, breathe cleaner air, and help to reduce the global warming problem. Every kilowatt-hour of electricity saved keeps 1.5 to 2 pounds of CO2 out of the atmosphere. Americans waste more energy than any other nation. I believe it is time to make our lives, factories, and homes more efficient. Look around at home, and at your work place, and you will find several ways in which you can decrease the use of electricity. For instance, plant several trees on the south side of your house where they can give shade during the hot summer months. Also, install an energy efficient thermostat, with a day and night timer.

Graph 4

Second, decrease the use of your car. If you can't afford to buy a new fuel-efficient car in the next few years, consider selling or junking your gas demanding car and buying a smaller, efficient used car. Besides saving money on gas, oil, tires, parts, and repairs, you can help reduce greenhouse gases. Furthermore, no matter what type of car you drive, be sure to operate it efficiently, try to carpool to work or ride the bus, keep the car tuned up, walk or ride your bike for short distances, park and walk do not use "drive thru" services.

Third, try to follow the following environmental policy of "Reduce....Reuse.....Recycle." Reuse of anything is the easiest and best way to recycle. Save containers, bags, everything that you may be able to use in the future. Also, use cloth towels and napkins instead of paper ones, and use rechargeable batteries instead of disposable ones.

Furthermore, you can reduce the need to recycle paper by getting off the junk mail lists. Why should trees be destroyed for mail you do not even want to receive? In addition, always remember that recycling is only effective when you buy products made from recycled materials. Otherwise, what is the point of recycling?

Also, remember that each time you make a purchase, you either reinforce a bad environmental product, or you encourage a good one. I believe that people should try to buy quality products that can be used for a long time, buy products with minimal packaging, and not buy disposable products. We certainly have to make-up our minds whether our success as an individual should not be based on the quantity of our consumption, or on the quality of our natural environment.

I believe that It is time to examine our moral values. Examine our attitudes as they relate to our natural world. Each of us needs to ask ourselves: What makes us really happy? What makes us feel secure? It is highly questionable if money and tangible objects make us more happy, it is even possible that we tend to be less happy with our life's when we have a lot of tangible objects and money to care for. Has our striving for more and more materialistic consumption caused us to forget that we are living human beings? We have to realize that we have much more in common with the plants, animals, air and water than we have with the mechanical, chemical and electronic world we have created around us.

Unfortunately, the disbalance which we have created between our life's and the Earth is already showing the signs of disaster. "Earth in the Balance" is moving to the Earth in imbalance, which, in the long run will cease to exist. Remember, we are all in the greenhouse together, nobody can stop the world and get off.

GLOBAL WARMING Videos - Before and After

2008-02-08T05:53:00.000-08:00

Melting icebergs - video powered by Metacafe

GLOBAL WARMING PICTURES - Before and After

2008-02-08T05:49:00.000-08:00

No more snow

Vanishing Islands

WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?

2008-02-08T05:45:00.000-08:00

Global warming is perhaps the most important environmental problem in the world today. Levels of greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere due to human activities, and are changing the composition of the atmosphere and global warming. Climate scientists agree that human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels contribute to the problem.

What is global warming - Clearly detailed

Scientists have predicted the phenomemon of global warming for decades. Unfortunately, some of the adverse effects of global warming, they have also predicted begin to occur throughout the world, including:

* growing incidence of droughts in some areas, floods in others;
* The rising temperatures of oceans and the sea level;
* increase extreme weather events such as tornadoes and hurricanes;
* The melting of mountain glaciers and the reduction of snow cover;
* Dying coral reefs, and
* Coastal erosion, and loss of coastal ecosystems.

While a handful of skeptics continue to discuss science, the World 'scientists agree: science is in. Global warming is happening.

What is global warming

What scientists say:

The Intergovernmental Group of Experts on International Climate Change (IPCC), an organization of more than 2000 climate scientists , has produced three scientific assessments concerning climate change and, in each, has concluded that global warming occurs, and is related to human activity. Their latest report (January 2001) stated that: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."

The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) concluded in June 2001 that: "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth 'atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing air temperatures on the surface and subsurface of the Ocean temperatures on the rise. Temperatures are, in fact increasing. "And he added: " national policy decisions made now and in the longer-term future will influence the extent of any damage suffered by vulnerable populations and ecosystems later in this century. "

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued an unprecedented alert in July 2003 warning that " Extreme weather events Might Increase "in the world. The alert tied a record number of extreme weather events such as tornadoes and heat waves in 2003 to global warming. The alert said: "Record extremes in weather and climate events continue to occur around the world. Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might increase. "Here in the United States, some states are taking action. The private sector is also responding to this challenge.

What is global warming
What is the United States about global warming?

The Bush administration, unfortunately, has turned its back on this problem. Shortly after taking office in 2001, President Bush went back on a campaign promise to regulate carbon emissions from the power plants (a major source of pollution to global warming). The Climate Change Plan announced by President Bush in February 2002, calls for a 18 percent reduction of greenhouse gases "intensity " in 2012, which translates into a 14 per cent more greenhouse gases during this period. As pointed out by the US General Accounting Office (GAO) in October, 2003 report, however, the "plan " represents virtually 'business as usual. 'The report states: "While the emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States rose Significantly, the Energy Information Administration of the United States reported that the emission intensity has been generally declining steadily since 50 years. "The Bush Climate Change Plan allows greenhouse gases continue to rise while the long decline in emissions intensity is also continued.

Fortunately, the United States Congress are beginning to demand action in the light of the continued blocking of the Bush administration. In the very first Senate vote on a mandate of the American policy cuts greenhouse gases, which took place in October 2003, 43 members of the Senate voted in favor of the measure, with 55 voting members of the objection. The authors of legislation, Senator from Arizona John McCain and Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut have promised to push for another vote on the bill, the Climate Stewardship Act, in 2004, and believe that they may even have enough votes for the measure to pass the Senate.

US: Manufacturers side with EPA in greenhouse gas lawsuit

2008-02-05T05:03:00.000-08:00

The US-based vehicle manufacturing trade group AIAM is to intervene on the side of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the lawsuit brought by the State of California against EPA concerning California's greenhouse gas emissions regulations.

"This is not a lawsuit to resist greenhouse gas emissions regulation. Rather, our intervention is focused on only one issue - who should set those standards," said AIAM president and CEO Michael Stanton.

"We believe that for important policy and legal reasons, it is the federal government that should set those standards."

In January, five non-profit groups filed a lawsuit challenging the 19 December decision by the EPA to deny California its request to implement its landmark law limiting global warming pollution from new vehicles.

The state of California also filed its own legal challenge to EPA's decision in the same court.

"AIAM has long supported efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy," said Stanton.

However, he added that at the same time, it was "critically important" that when it came to fuel economy and motor vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, automobile manufacturers be subject to a single national fleet standard set at the federal level.

"This is an issue on which there is unanimity within the industry," Stanton said.

AIAM said that it believes that the EPA's decision to deny California's waiver application, which sought to impose state-level greenhouse gas emissions regulations, is critical in maintaining fleet fuel economy requirements at the federal level. This would avoid, it says, unnecessarily burdensome compliance on a state-by-state basis for no additional environmental benefit.

"AIAM believes firmly that the automobile industry must do its part to address this important national and international issue," Stanton said. "However, we must do so in a sensible and efficient manner that preserves national uniformity in this important regulatory area."

AIAM - The Association of International Automobile Manufacturers - is a trade association representing 14 international motor vehicle manufacturers who account for 40% of all passenger cars and light trucks sold annually in the US.

Prince Andrew rebukes US over Iraq war

2008-02-05T05:01:00.000-08:00

Prince Andrew. Photograph: John Stillwell/PA

Bruised Anglo-America relations over Iraq were unexpectedly prodded by the Duke of York today when he criticised the Bush administration for failing to listen to Britain on post-invasion tactics.

In a rare and outspoken interview with the International Herald Tribune, Prince Andrew said the Iraq war had prompted a "healthy scepticism" towards America.

He said there was feeling in Britain of "why didn't anyone listen to what was said and the advice that was given".

Citing Britain's experience of colonialism, the prince said there were "occasions where people in the UK would wish that those in responsible positions in the US might listen and learn from our experiences".

Speaking ahead of a 10-day trade mission to the US, Prince Andrew, now a trade envoy, said: "If you are looking at colonialism, if you are looking at operations on an international scale, if you are looking at understanding each other's culture, understanding how to operate in a military insurgency campaign - we have been through them all."

The prince, who is fourth in line to the throne, added: ""We've won some, lost some, drawn some. The fact is there is quite a lot of experience over here which is valid and should be listened to."

Prince Andrew's criticism amplifies Britain's concerns about America's deBaathification policy following the invasion.

Geoff Hoon, the then defence secretary, more diplomatically said that Britain "lost the argument" with the Bush administration over rebuilding Iraq.

In his interview with IHT, the prince also spoke of his time flying helicopters during the Falklands war. He said the experience had left him with a "different view of life".

Crude futures retreat on US economic woes

2008-02-05T05:00:00.000-08:00

Global crude futures traded lower in European morning trading Tuesday,
reversing the uptrend of the previous day as continued weakness in US equity
markets triggered fresh selloffs.
    After bullish geopolitical news supported the market Monday, the
sentiment was bearish Tuesday on US economic woes, which could ultimately
dampen oil demand, sources said.
    At 11:35 GMT, March crude futures on NYMEX were trading 92 cents lower at
$89.10/barrel and Brent on ICE was at $89.59/barrel, for a loss of 88 cents.
    While analysts believe that there is an occasional need to insert a
geopolitical risk premium into the market, they continue to view economic woes
as the main price driver in the complex.
    "Despite the higher close, WTI is still struggling to maintain a positive
momentum," Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix, said in a report.
    Meanwhile, although the market will take direction from the US Energy
Information Administration's stocks data due out tomorrow, which market
sources say is likely to remain on the bearish side, its influence is expected
to be relatively muted.
    "Stats are bearish and as we're coming out of winter," said a
London-based broker. "We see them as being less significant."
    February gasoil on ICE traded $8.25 lower at $791.50/mt while NYMEX March
heating oil traded 1.97 cents lower at $2.4636/gallon.
    Front-month RBOB traded 2.42 cents lower at $2.2875/gal.

US raid in Iraq kills 3

2008-02-05T04:59:00.000-08:00

BAGHDAD — At least three Iraqis were killed and one child was injured after American soldiers stormed a tiny one-room house north of Baghdad and opened fire, U.S. and Iraqi officials said Tuesday.Iraqi police said a couple and their 19-year-old son were killed, and that their two young daughters were wounded in the U.S. raid around 11 p.m. Monday. One of the young girls died early Tuesday, and the other was evacuated to a U.S. military hospital, police said.

The U.S. military, which confirmed the incident in response to a query from The Associated Press, reported just three deaths. The confirmation came a day after the military announced it had accidentally killed nine civilians, including a child, in a U.S. airstrike south of Baghdad.

That incident took place Saturday near Iskandariyah, during a U.S. raid against suspected al-QAida in Iraq militants. It was the deadliest known case of mistaken identity in months, and raised fresh concerns about the military's ability to distinguish friend from foe in a campaign to uproot insurgents from Sunni areas near the capital.

The latest reported killings took place in the village of Adwar, 10 miles south of Tikrit.

The U.S. military said in a statement U.S. troops came under small arms fire while entering the building, and that soldiers shot dead two men inside. A woman was killed and one child was injured, but it was unclear who shot them, the statement said. The incident remains under investigation, the military said.

A cousin of the victims, Kareem Talea Hamad, 20, said he watched the killings from his house across the street, and gave a different account of events than the American military's version.

Hamad said U.S. soldiers opened the door to the small brick house and immediately opened fire, killing its unarmed residents: father Ali Hamad Shihab, 55, his wife Naeimah Ali Sulaiman, 40, and their 19-year-old son Diaa Ali, who was a member of a U.S.-backed neighborhood watch group.

Two other daughters were wounded and transported to hospitals, and one died Tuesday morning, Hamad said. An Iraqi police officer, speaking on customary condition of anonymity, confirmed Hamad's account.

An AP reporter who went to the family's house early Tuesday saw three dead bodies, laid out in their blood-soaked beds. Bullet casings littered the ground.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. military issued another statement saying it "regrets the loss of an innocent civilian and the wounding of a child." It did not name the father and son, but claimed U.S. soldiers killed the men in self-defense.

ENERGY CRISIS IN SOUTH AFRICA

2008-02-03T21:38:00.000-08:00

An email from Will Alexander [alexwjr@iafrica.com], Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria

South Africa is experiencing an energy crisis that has all the dimensions of a national disaster. Last Friday all South Africa's gold, platinum, diamond and some coal mines closed. This was because of the dangers to miners during unexpected power failures. Energy-demanding ventilation and dewatering are critical requirements for our mines. Large energy-consuming aluminium and other smelters have closed down. Tens of thousands of workers are out on the streets. Gold and platinum account for about 25% of South Africa's exports. Losses are estimated to exceed R200 million per day from these sources alone.

Our only energy supplier is the semi-state body Eskom. The mining industry uses 12% of Eskom's capacity, accounts for 7% of the economy, 30% of exports and 25% of foreign exchange earnings.

This is only one of the consequences of the energy crisis. There are many examples of how the crisis is affecting all aspects of life in this country. Our national economy has already been adversely affected. On two occasions I visited local shopping centres. The lights were out, doors were closed, and the staff were waiting in the corridors for the power to come on again.

In order to overcome the problem, the authorities intend imposing severe reductions in electricity use. These will be in place for the next five years at least. The reductions include industries (10%), commercial use (15%), shopping centres and hotels (20%), large office complexes (15%), agriculture (5%) and household use (10%). The target is the reduction of national energy demand by 10% to 15%. No mention is made of the mining sector or of the natural growth in demand.

The relative use of electricity of the various sectors is as follows: households (35%), industry (35%), mining (12%), commercial use (9%), export to neighbouring states (4%), agriculture (3%) and transport (2%). The economies of our neighbouring states will also suffer.

I was directly involved in the imposition of water restrictions during the severe drought of the 1980s. These were very difficult to implement. The control of electricity use will be even more difficult. Voluntary reductions on the required scale will not be achieved. It will take at least a year to implement enforceable measures.

Other long-term measures are proposed. They include the compulsory use of energy-saving light bulbs and the installation of solar water heaters. It is not a coincidence that these restriction measures have long been proposed by climate change activists. They are also the basis for South Africa's support for internationally enforceable and economically damaging greenhouse gas control measures.

Now the South African public will directly experience the consequence of these measures long proposed by climate alarmists. There is little prospect of South Africa meeting its goals of halving unemployment and poverty by 2014. Economists are also predicting that we will not achieve the targeted 6% annual economic growth within the foreseeable future.

The South African authorities have acknowledged that the crisis is the result of not taking heed of warnings issued in 1998 that this would happen if our power generation network was not expanded to meet the growing demand. There is some suspicion that the delay was also the result of pressures from environmental activists.

This is a very good example of what will happen to the fragile economies of other developing countries with large disadvantaged populations. It also demonstrates the consequences when developing countries are forced to comply with compulsory reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imposed by developed counties such as the EU for example.

The UK sent Nicholas Stern and David King to South Africa in order to persuade the South African authorities to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and to persuade other developing counties to follow suite. Now we see the result.

Playing Chris Horner and RJ Smith on CA Wildfires

2008-02-03T21:37:00.004-08:00

Playing Chris Horner on Glenn Beck discussing Bali

2008-02-03T21:37:00.003-08:00

Playing Myron Ebell on Global Warming Negotiations

2008-02-03T21:37:00.001-08:00

The impact of global warming in South America

2008-02-03T21:35:00.003-08:00

The people of South America are heavily dependent on the continent�s natural resources—from the rangelands at the foothills of the Andes, to the plants and animals of the Amazon rainforest, to the fisheries off the coast of Peru. The region�s ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the changes in water availability expected with a changing climate. Higher global temperatures along with more frequent El Ni�os may bring increased drought, and melting glaciers in the Andes threaten the future water supply of mountain communities. Signs of a warming climate have already appeared both at high elevations—in glacial retreat and shifting ranges of disease-carrying mosquitoes—and along the coast—in rising sea level and coral bleaching.

Fingerprints

45. Recife, Brazil -- Sea-level rise. Shoreline receded more than 6 feet (1.8 m) per year from 1915 to 1950 and more than 8 feet (2.4 m) per year from 1985 to 1995. The dramatic land loss was due to a combination of sea-level rise and loss of sediment supply following dam construction, harbor dredging, and other coastal engineering projects.

64. Andes Mountains, Peru -- Glacial retreat accelerates seven-fold. The edge of the Qori Kalis glacier was retreating 13 feet (4.0 m) annually between 1963 and 1978. By 1995, the rate had stepped up to 99 feet (30.1 m) per year.

92. Chiclayo, Peru - Large increase in average minimum temperatures. Average minimum temperatures along Peru�s north coast increased 3.5�F (2�C) from the 1960s to 2000. The temperature in the high plateau region in extreme southeastern Peru has also risen 3.5�F (2�C), from an average of 48�F (9�C) in the 1960s to 52�F (11�C) in 2001. Northwestern South America has warmed by 0.8-1.4�F (0.5-0.8 �C) in the last decade of the 20th century.

101. Tropical Andes (Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and northernmost Chile) - Increase in average annual temperature. Average annual temperature has increased by about 0.18�F (0.1�C) per decade since 1939. The rate of warming has doubled in the last 40 years, and more than tripled in the last 25 years, to about 0.6�F (0.33�C) per decade.

128. Argentina - Receding glaciers. Glaciers in Patagonia have receded by an average of almost a mile (1.5 km) over the last 13 years. There has been an increase in maximum, minimum, and average daily temperatures of more than 1.8�F (1�C) over the past century in southern Patagonia, east of the Andes.

132. Venezuela - Disappearing glaciers. Of six glaciers in the Venezuelan Andes in 1972, only 2 remain, and scientists predict that these will be gone within the next 10 years. Glaciers in the mountains of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru show similar rapid rates of retreat. Temperature records in other regions of the Andes show a significant warming of about 0.6� F (0.33�C) per decade since the mid-1970s.

Harbingers

15. Andes Mountains, Columbia -- Disease-carrying mosquitoes spreading. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that can carry dengue and yellow fever viruses were previously limited to 3,300 feet (1,006 m) but recently appeared at 7,200 feet (2,195 m).

36. Monteverde Cloud Forest, Costa Rica -- Disappearing frogs and toads. A reduction in dry-seson mists due to warmer Pacific ocean temperatures has beenlinked to disappearances of 20 species of frogs and toads, upward shifts in the ranges of mountain birds, and declines in lizard populations.

47. Pacific Ocean, Panama -- Coral reef bleaching.

53. Caribbean -- Coral reeef bleaching.

58. Galapagos -- Coral reef bleaching..

86. Nicaragua -- 2.2 million acres (890,308 hectares) burned, 1998. Over 15,000 fires burned in 1998, and the blazing acreage included protected lands in the Bosawas Biosphere Reserve.

117. Argentine Islands - Antarctic flowering plants changes. The populations of two native Antarctic flowering plants increased rapidly between 1964 and 1990, coincident with the strong regional warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. The Antarctic pearlwort population increased 5-fold while the Antarctic hairgrass increased 25-fold. The unusually rapid increases are attributed to warmer summer temperatures and/or a longer growing season, which enhance the plant�s ability to reproduce.

125. Galapagos, Ecuador - Coral reef bleaching, March/April 2002. Sea-surface temperatures rose above 81.5�F (27.5�C) several times, causing repeated coral bleaching events. Repeated and prolonged bleaching episodes - expected as tropical water temperatures warm with climate change - eventually kill corals and cause a decline in associated marine species.

143. Pampas region, Argentina/Uruguay - Worst flooding on record, August to October 2001. Nearly 8 million acres (3.2 million hectares) of land in the Pampas region were flooded after 3 months of high rainfall. Mean annual precipiation in the humid Pampa increased by 35% in the last half of the 20th century.

145. Buenos Aires, Argentina - Heaviest rains in 100 years, May 2000. 13.5 inches (34.2 cm) of rain, more than 4 times the average monthly rainfall, fell in just 5 days. Northeastern Argentina is exhibiting a long-term trend of increasing precipitation.

146. Venezuela - Heaviest rainfall in 100 years, December 1999. The heaviest rainfall in 100 years caused massive landslides and flooding that killed approximately 30,000 people. Total December rainfall in Maiquetia, near Caracas, was almost 4 feet (1.2 m), more than 5 times the previous December record. The high death toll was attributed to population growth in vulnerable areas and forest clearing on steep hill slopes.

153. Argentina - Fire outbreak. 3.7 million acres (1.5 million hectares) burned in La Pampa province, sustained by record temperatures and persistent drought. Annual average temperature in Argentina has increased by nearly 1.8�F (1�C) over the last century.

The impact of global warming in Oceania

2008-02-03T21:35:00.001-08:00

The Oceania region ranges from the lush tropical rainforests of Indonesia to the interior deserts of Australia. The climate is strongly influenced by the ocean and the El Ni�o phenomenon. Small island nations and the coastal regions—where much of the population is concentrated—are very vulnerable to increasing coastal flooding and erosion due to rising sea level. Warming sea temperatures in recent years have damaged many of the region�s spectacular coral reefs, threatening one of the world�s most diverse ecosystems.

Fingerprints

2. Christchurch, New Zealand -- Warmest February on record, 1998. Daily temperatures averaged near 67�F (19.4�C).

43. Fiji -- Sea-level rise. Reports from local inhabitants at 16 sites indicate that the island's average shoreline has been receding half a foot (0.15 m) per year over at least the past 90 years.

44. American and Western Samoa -- Land loss. Western Samoa has experienced shore recession of about 1.5 feet (0.46 m) per year for at least the past 90 years.

67. New Zealand -- Retreating glaciers. The average elevation for glaciers in the Southern Alps has shifted upslope by more than 300 feet (91.4 m) over the past century.

129. Heard Island (Australia) - Rising temperatures; retreating glaciers. Since 1947 the island's 34 glaciers have decreased by 11% in area and 12% in volume, with half the loss occurring in the 1980s. Air temperature has risen 1.3�F (0.7�C) between 1947 and 2001.

Harbingers

18. Indonesia -- Malaria spreads to high elevations. Malaria was detected for the first time as high as 6,900 feet (2,103 m) in the highlands of Irian Jaya in 1997.

48. American Samoa -- Coral reef bleaching.

49. Papua New Guinea -- Coral reef bleaching.

50. Philippines -- Coral reef bleaching.

51. Indian Ocean -- Coral reef bleaching (inclues Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia).

56. Australia, Great Barrier Reef -- Coral reef bleaching.

75. New South Wales, Australia -- Wettest August on records, 1998. On August 15-17, a storm dumped nearly 12 inches (30.5 cm) of rain on Sydney, over 8 inches (20.3 cm) more than what normally falls during that entire month.

87. Indonesia -- Burning rainforest, 1998. Fires burned up to 2 million acres (809,371 hectares) of land, including almost 250,000 acres of primary forest and parts of the already severely reduced habitat of the Kalimantan orangutan.

100. Australia - 2002 - Warmest April on record. This occurred in the context of an average annual temperature increase of 0.9-1.8�F (0.5-1.0�C) per decade over the past century. There has also been an increase in warm days and a decrease in cold winter days.

123. New Zealand - Ocean warming. The oceans around New Zealand have been warming over the past decade at a rate not seen since the 1930s. Over the last century the average ocean temperatures around New Zealand increased by about 1.8�F (1�C), slightly more than the global average. Despite 20 years of cooling from the 1970s through the early 1990s - due to longer and stronger El Ni�o events affecting the regional ocean temperatures - New Zealand�s ocean temperature increase over the 20th century is consistent with the global average upward trend. Sea level along the country�s shoreline has been rising accordingly by an average of 0.04-0.08 inches (1-2 mm) per year.

124. Fiji - Coral reef bleaching, 2000. A new wave of coral bleaching events has been observed during the southern summer in Fiji and on many other South Pacific atolls. Satellite measurements by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association documented unusually high temperatures across much of the Pacific. The 1990s has seen several major bleaching events. Repeated and prolonged bleaching episodes - expected as tropical water temperatures warm with climate change - eventually kill corals and cause a decline in associated marine species.

The impact of global warming in North America

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The vast North American continent ranges from the lush sub-tropical climate of Florida to the frozen ice and tundra of the Arctic. Within these extremes are two wealthy industrialized countries with diverse ecosystems at risk. Yet the United States and Canada are two of the largest global emitters of the greenhouse gases that contribute to a warming climate. Examples of all 10 of the "hotspot" categories can be found in this region, including changes such as polar warming in Alaska, coral reef bleaching in Florida, animal range shifts in California, glaciers melting in Montana, and marsh loss in the Chesapeake Bay.

For North America we have many more hotspots than for some other regions of the world, although impact studies have been emerging in larger numbers in recent years from previously under-studied regions. This higher density of early warning signs in the US and Canada is due in part to the fact that these regions have more readily accessible climatic data and more comprehensive programs to monitor and study environmental change, in part to the disproportionate warming that has been observed over the mid-to-high-latitude continents compared to other regions during the last century, and in part to capture the attention of North Americans who need to take action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Fingerprints

4. Edmonton, Canada -- Warmest summer on record, 1998. Temperatures were more than 5.4�F (3�C) higher than the 116-year average.

7. Glasgow, Montana -- No sub-zero days, 1997. For the first time ever, temperatures remained above 0�F (-17.8�C) in December. The average temperature was 10.9�F (6�C) above normal.

8. Little Rock, Arkansas -- Hottest May on record, 1998.

9. Texas -- Deadly heat wave, summer 1998. Heat claimed more than 100 lives in the region. Dallas temperatures were over 100�F (37.8�C) for 15 straight days.

10. Florida -- June heat wave, 1998. Melbourne endured 24 days above 95�F (35�C); nighttime temperatures in Tampa remained above 80�F (26.6�C) for 12 days.

11. USA -- Late fall heat wave 1998. An unprecedented autumn heat wave from mid-November to early December broke or tied more than 700 daily-high temperature records from the Rockies to the East Coast. Temperatures rose into the 70�F (20�C) as far north as South Dakota and Maine.

12. Eastern USA -- July heat wave, 1999. More than 250 people died as a result of a heat wave that gripped much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Heat indices of over 100�F (37.8�C) were common across the southern and central plains, reaching a record 119�F (48.3�C) in Chicago.

13. New York City -- Record heat, July 1999. New York City had its warmest and driest July on record, with temperatures climbing above 95�F (35�C) for 11 days -- the most ever in a single month.

39. Chesapeake Bay -- Marsh and island loss. The current rate of a sea-level rise is three times the historical rate and appears to be accelerating. Since 1938, about one-third of the marsh at Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge has been submerged.

40. Bermuda -- Dying mangroves. Rising sea level is leading to saltwater inundation of coastal mangrove forests.

42. Hawaii -- Beach loss. Sea-level rise at Waimea Bay, along with coastal development, has contributed to considerable beach loss over the past 90 years.

65. Glacier National Park, Montana -- All glaciers in the park will be gone by 2070 if retreat continues at its current rate.

68. Interior Alaska -- Permafrost thawing. Permafrost thawing is causing the ground to subside 16-33 feet (4.9-10 m) in parts of interior Alaska. The permafrost surface has warmed by about 3.5�F (1.9�C) since the 1960's.

69. Barrow, Alaska -- Less snow in summer. Summer days without snow have increased from fewer than 80 in the 1950's to more than 100 in the 1990's.

71. Bering Sea -- Reduced sea ice. Sea-ice extent has shrunk by about 5 percent over the past 40 years.

72. Arctic Ocean -- Shrinking sea ice. The area covered by sea ice declined by about 6 percent from 1978 to 1995.

135. Canadian Rockies - Disappearing glaciers. The Athabasca Glacier has retreated one-third of a mile (0.5 km) in the last 60 years and has thinned dramatically since the 1950s-60s. In British Columbia the Wedgemont Glacier has retreated hundreds of meters since 1979, as the climate has warmed at a rate of 2�F (1.1�C) per century, twice the global average.

136. Alaska - Increasing rate of retreat. A study of 67 glaciers shows that between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s the glaciers thinned by an average of about 1.6 feet (0.5 m) per year. Repeat measurements on 28 of those glaciers show that from the mid-1990s to 2000-2001 the rate of thinning had increased to nearly 6 feet (1.8 m) per year. Alaska has experienced a rapid warming since the 1960s. Annual average temperatures have warmed up to 1.8�F (1�C) per decade over the last three decades, and winter warming has been as high as 3�F (2�C) per decade.

Harbingers

16. Mexico -- Dengue fever spreads to higher elevations. Dengue fever has spread above its former elevation limit of 3,300 feet (1,006 m) and has appeared at 5,600 feet (1,707 m).

19. Central America -- Dengue fever spreads to higher elevations. Dengue fever is spreading above its former limit of 3,300 feet (1,006 m) and has been reported above 4,000 feet (1,219 m).

23. Lake Mendota, Wisconsin -- Fewer days of ice cover. The number of days per year with ice cover has decreased by 22 percent since the mid-1800s.

24. Mirror Lake, New Hampshire -- Earlier spring ice-out. The ice-covered period has declined by about half a day per year during the past 30 years.

25. Nenana, Alaska -- Early river thaw. During 82 years on record, four out of the five earliest thaws on the Tanana River occurred in the 1990's.

26. Washington, D.C. -- Cherry trees blossoming earlier. Average peak bloom from 1970-1999 came April 3, compared to April 5 from 1921-1970.

28. California -- Butterfly range shift. Edith's Checkerspot Butterfly has been disappearing from the lower elevations and southern limits of its range.

31. Olympic Mountains, Washington -- Forest invasion of alpine meadow. Sub-alpine forest has invaded higher-elevation alpine meadows, partly in response to warmer temperatures.

33. Alaska -- Sea bird population decline. The black guillemot population is declining from 1990 levels because melting sea ice has increased the distance the birds must fly to forage for food and reduced the number of resting sites available.

34. Canadian Arctic -- Caribou die-offs. Peary caribou have declined from 24,000 in 1961 to perhaps as few as 1,100 in 1997, mostly because of major die-offs that have occurred in recent years after heavy snowfalls and freezing rain covered the animals' food supply.

35. Monterey Bay , California -- Shoreline sea life shifting northwards. Changes in invertebrate species such as limpets, snails, and sea stars in the 60-year period between 1931-1933 and 1993-1994 indicate that species' ranges are shifting northwards, probably in response to warmer ocean and air temperatures.

38. U.S. West Coast -- Sea bird population decline. A decline of about 90 percent in sooty shearwaters from 1987 to 1994 corresponds to a warming of the California Current of about 1.4�F (0.78�C).

46. Pacific Ocean, Mexico -- Coral reef bleaching.

53. Caribbean -- Coral reeef bleaching.

54. Florida Keys and Bahamas -- Coral reef bleaching.

55. Bermuda -- Coral reef bleaching.

76. New England -- Double normal rainfall, June 1998. Rainfall in Boston on June 13-14 broke a 117-year-old record, closing Logan Airport and two interstate roads. Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts each received more than double their normal monthly rainfall.

78. Black Hills, South Dakota -- Record snowfall, 1998. At the end of February, the Black Hills received 102.4 inches (260 cm) of snow in five days, almost twice as much snow as the previous single-storm record for the state.

79. Texas -- Record downpours, 1998. Severe flooding in southeast Texas from two heavy rain storms with 10-20 inch (25.4-50.8 cm) rainfall totals caused $1 billion in damage and 31 deaths.

80. Santa Barbara, California -- Wettest month on record, 1998. 21.74 inches (55.22 cm) of rain fell in February, the most rain in a month since record keeping began.

81. Mount Baker, Washington -- World record snowfall, 1999. 1,140 inches (2,896 cm) of snow fell between November 1998 and the end of June 1999, a world record for most snowfall in a single winter season.

82. Florida -- Worst wildfires in 50 years, 1998. Fires burned 485,000 acres (196,272 hectares) and destroyed more than 300 homes and structures.

84. Florida, Texas, Louisiana -- Driest period in 104 years, April-June 1998. San Antonio received only 8 percent of its normal rainfall in May. New Orleans suffered its driest and hottest May in history.

85. Mexico -- Worst fire season ever, 1998. 1.25 million acres burned during a severe drought. Smoke reaching Texas triggered a statewide health alert.

86. Nicaragua -- 2.2 million acres (890,308 hectares) burned, 1998. Over 15,000 fires burned in 1998, and the blazing acreage included protected lands in the Bosawas Biosphere Reserve.

89. Eastern USA -- Driest growing season on record, 1999. The period from April-July 1999 was the driest in 105 years of record-keeping in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Rhode Island. Agricultural disaster areas were declared in fifteen states, with losses in West Virginia alone expected to exceed $80 million.

102. North America - Genetic adaptation to global warming in mosquito. Ecologists have identified the first genetic adaptation to global warming in the North American mosquito Wyeomyia smithii. Modern mosquitoes wait nine days more than their ancestors did 30 years ago before they begin their winter dormancy, with warmer autumns being the most likely cause. Higher temperatures, enhancing mosquito survival rates, population growth and biting rates, can increase the risk of disease transmission.

109. Colorado - Earlier emergence from hibernation. Marmots are emerging from hibernation on average 23 days earlier than 23 years ago. This coincides with an increase in average May temperatures of about 1.8�F (1�C) over the same time period.

110. Southeast Arizona - Earlier egg-laying. Mexican jays are laying eggs 10 days earlier than in 1971. The earlier breeding coincides with a nearly 5�F (2.8�C) increase in average nighttime temperatures from 1971 to 1998.

114. Alaska - Changing vegetation patterns. Comparison of photographs taken in 1948-50 to those taken in 1999-2000 of the area between the Brooks Range and the Arctic coast show an increase in shrub abundance in tundra areas, and an increase in the extent and density of spruce forest along the treeline. The increased vegetation growth is attributed to increasing air temperatures in Alaska, on average 1.8�F (1�C) per decade over the last three decades.

115. Western Hudson Bay, Canada - Stressed Polar Bears. Decreased weight in adult polar bears and a decline in birthrate since the early 1980s has been attributed to the earlier spring breakup of sea ice. Rising spring temperatures have shortened the spring hunting season by two weeks over the last two decades.

116. Banks Island, Canada - Expanded Ranges. The Inuit now regularly see species common much further south that previously were never seen on the island, such as robins and barn swallows. Thunder and lightning, never before recorded in Inuit oral history, have also been reported.

The impact of global warming in Europe and Russia

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Europe�s natural ecosystems are generally fragmented and disturbed, making them very sensitive to climate change. Most of Europe experienced temperature increases this century that are larger than the global average, and precipitation generally increased in the north but decreased in the south. The warming is clearly noticeable in mountain regions by the widespread retreat of glaciers in the Alps. Plant and animal species are also apparently responding to the changes by shifting their ranges northward and by changing the timing of their activities to coincide with an earlier spring. The fragmented nature of the European landscape, however, may make it difficult for less adaptive species to respond to continued climatic warming.

For Europe (and North America) we have many more hotspots than for some other regions of the world, although impact studies have been emerging in larger numbers in recent years from previously under-studied regions. This higher density of early warning signs in Europe is due in part to the fact that these regions have more readily accessible climatic data and more comprehensive programs to monitor and study environmental change, in part to the disproportionate warming that has been observed over the mid-to-high-latitude continents compared to other regions during the last century, and in part to emphasize the importance of the industrialized countries of Europe taking strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Fingerprints

6. Central England -- Cold days declining, hot days increasing, 1772 to present. 1995 brought 26 days above 68�F (20�C) versus an average of 4 days per year since 1772.

60. Caucasus Mountains, Russia -- Half of all glacial ice disappeared in the past 100 years.

63. Austria -- Record glacial retreat. Emergence of a frozen Stone Age mummy from a melting glacier in the Oetztal Alps indicates that glacial ice is more reduced today than at any time during the past 5,000 years.

66. Spain -- Half of glaciers present in 1980 are gone.

97. Southeast Europe and Middle East - Widespread heat wave, July-August 2000. Temperatures reached as high as 111�F (43.8�C) in locations across Turkey, Greece, Romania, Italy, and Bulgaria. In Bulgaria, 100-year records for daily maximum temperature were broken at more than 75% of the observing stations on July 5th. For Armenia, 2000 was the hottest summer of the century. Jordan reported the longest stretch of summer heat in its 77-year record. Continental Europe warmed 1.4�F (0.8�C) during the past century, with the last decade being the warmest on record.

98. Denmark and Germany - 2001 - Warmest October on record. In Germany temperatures were as much as 7�F (4�C) above average. The record-breaking temperatures occurred in the context of a warming trend of 1.4�F (0.8�C) over continental Europe during the past century.

99. Central England - 2001 - Warmest October on record. Over the 20th century Central England temperature has warmed by about 1�F (0.5�C). Four of the five warmest years on the 343-year record occurred in the last decade.

137. Greenland - Rapid thinning of ice sheet. Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet in coastal areas, especially of outlet glaciers, has been measured in two studies during the 1990s. The coastal land ice loss is attributed to a combination of warming-driven factors, including increased melting during warmer summers, high snow accumulation rates feeding the outlet glaciers, and increased rates of melting at the bottom of glaciers due to ocean warming.

138. Arctic Ocean - Decreasing ice thickness. Ice thickness at 29 stations, as measured by submarine sonar, decreased by an average of more than 4 feet (1.2 m) compared to 20 to 40 years ago, representing a 40% reduction in ice volume. From 1966 to 1995, annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by as much as 1.8�F (1�C) per decade, and spring temperatures increased by as much as 3.6�F (2�C) per decade. Temperature reconstructions from tree rings, ice cores, and other long-term records indicate that the 20th century was the warmest century in the Arctic since 1600.

139. Arctic Ocean - Decreasing ice cover. Satellite measurements indicate the area of perennial ice cover has decreased by about 7% per decade since 1978.

Harbingers

20. United Kingdom -- Toads, frogs, and newts spawning early. Spawning was 9 to 10 days earlier over a 17-year period.

21. United Kingdom -- Birds laying eggs early. From 1971 to 1995, 31 percent of 65 bird species studied in England showed significant trends towards earlier egg laying, moving up the date by an average of 8.8 days.

22. Southern England -- Early leafing of oak trees. The four earliest leafing dates occurred in the past decade, a response to increasing temperatures during January to March over the past 41 years.

27. Austria -- Alpine plants retreat up mountains. Over a 70 to 90 year period, alpine plants in the Austrian and Swiss Alps moved higher up on mountain slopes in response to an increase in average annual temperature.

29. Europe -- Butterfly ranges shift northward. 22 of 35 butterfly species studied have shifted their ranges northwards by 22 to 150 miles (35-241 km), consistent with a 1.4�F (0.78�C) warming over the past century.

30. Germany -- Mollusc range shift. 20% of 40 mollusc species in a national park have changed their distribution in response to warming.

37. United Kingdom -- Birds shift northward. Over a 20-year period, many birds have extended the northern margins of their ranges by an average of about 12 miles (19 km).

83. Mediterranean -- Intense drought and fires. Spain lost more than 1.2 million acres (485,622 hectares) of forest to wildfires in 1994, and 370,000 acres (149,734 hectares) burned in each of Greece and Italy in 1998.

104. Tornionjoki River, Finland - Earlier ice break-up. Spring ice breakup now comes about 7 days earlier compared to a century ago. Thirty-eight of 39 records of ice cover from throughout the Northern Hemisphere show a trend toward earlier spring ice breakup and later winter freezing between 1846 and 1995. This shift corresponds with surface air temperature measurements showing the largest rates of warming since 1976 over the mid- and high latitude continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

106. The Netherlands - Earlier flight peak of moths. Between 1975 and 1996 the flight peak of small moths shifted to a date 11.6 days earlier. Warmer temperatures promote the earlier appearance of insects and earlier peak flight times.

107. Hungary - Earlier flowering dates. Flowering dates of the locust tree occurred 3-8 days earlier during the period 1983-1994 compared to 1851-1930. The study indicates that a rise in temperature of 1.8�F (1�C) causes an advanced flowering by 7 days.

108. Europe - Change in timing of spring and autumn events. A study of European plants from 1959 to 1993 shows that spring events (such as flowering) have advanced by about 6 days and autumn events (such as leaf coloring) have been delayed by about 5 days. The plant response occurred during a period of a warming. Annual average temperature over continental Europe has increased 1.4�F over the past century.

111. Europe - Earlier growing season. A study of the timing of leaf unfolding for four tree species shows that from 1969 to 1998 the beginning of the growing season has advanced by 8 days. The earlier leaf unfolding corresponds with increasing early spring temperatures over the last 30 years. The greatest warming occurred in Portugal, where average air temperatures in early spring (February to March) increased by nearly 1.1�F (0.6�C) per decade, and the beginning of the growing season has advanced by about 14 days since 1969.

112. Turku, Finland - Longer growing season. The growing season has lengthened by over 10 days over the last century. Throughout the Nordic region the start of the growing season has become progressively earlier by between 4 and 12 days.

113. England - Earlier first flowering date. One of the most comprehensive studies of plant species in Britain revealed that the average first flowering date of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades: 16% of species flowered significantly earlier in the 1990s than previously, with an average advancement of 15 days in a decade. These data reveal the strongest biological signal yet of climatic change. Flowering is especially sensitive to the temperature in the previous month, and spring-flowering species are most responsive.

118. United Kingdom - British birds extend their ranges northward. A comparison of the breeding distributions of birds for two time periods, 1968-72 and 1988-91, showed that the northern margins for many species had moved northwards by an average of about 12 miles (19 km). The range shift occurred during a period when central England�s temperature warmed by about 0.9�F (0.5�C) over the last century, and the 10-year period 1988-1997 was the warmest such period in the record.

144. Southeastern Norway - Wettest year on record, 2000. The year 2000 was the wettest year since records began in 1895. Precipitation in northern Europe has increased 10-40% in the last century.

152. Samos Island, Greece - Fires, July 2000 Fires due to dry conditions and record-breaking heat consumed one-fifth of the island. Temperatures reached up to 104�F (40�C) in some areas. Averaged over the continent, Europe has warmed 1.4�F (0.8�C) during the past century.

The impact of global warming in Central America

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The climate of Central America strongly affects social and economic conditions in the region through its impacts on agriculture, tourism, and human health. The impacts of the 1997-98 El Ni�o in Central America provide examples of what future climate warming may bring. During that year, forest fires raged out of control and high sea surface temperatures �bleached� corals in adjacent seas. Future changes in the frequency of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts may damage important export crops such as bananas, threaten human settlements on unstable hillsides, and facilitate the outbreak of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.

Fingerprints

10. Florida -- June heat wave, 1998. Melbourne endured 24 days above 95�F (35�C); highttime temperatures in Tampa remained above 80�F (26.6�C) for 12 days.

40. Bermuda -- Dying mangroves. Rising sea level is leading to saltwater inundation of coastal mangrove forests.

132. Venezuela - Disappearing glaciers. Of six glaciers in the Venezuelan Andes in 1972, only 2 remain, and scientists predict that these will be gone within the next 10 years. Glaciers in the mountains of Columbia, Ecuador, and Peru show similar rapid rates of retreat. Temperature records in other regions of the Andes show a significant warming of about 0.6� F (0.33�C) per decade since the mid-1970s.

Harbingers

16. Mexico --Dengue fever spreads to higher elevations. Dengue fever has spread above its former elevation limit of 3,300 feet (1,006 m) and has appeared at 5,600 feet (1,707 m).

19. Central America -- Dengue fever spreads to higher elevations. Dengue fever is spreading above its former limit of 3,300 feet (1,006 m) and has been reported above 4,000 feet (1,219 m).

36. Monteverde Cloud Forest, Costa Rica -- Disappearing frogs and toads. A reduction in dry-season mists due to warmer Pacific ocean temperatures has been linked to disappearances of 20 species of frogs and toads, upward shifts in the ranges of mountain birds, and declines in lizard population.

46. Pacific Ocean, Mexico -- Coral reef bleaching.

47. Pacific Ocean, Panama -- Coral reef bleaching.

53. Caribbean -- Coral reef bleaching.

54. Florida Keys and Bahamas -- Coral reef bleaching.

55. Bermuda -- Coral reef bleaching.

80. Santa Barbara, California -- Wettest month on record, 1998. 21.74 inches (55.22 cm) of rain fell in February, the most rain in a month since record keeping began.

82. Florida -- Worst wildfires in 50 years, 1998. Fires burned 485,000 acres (196,272 hectares) and destroyed more than 300 homes and structures.

85. Mexico -- Worst fires season ever, 1998. 1.25 milion acres (505,857 hectares) burned during a severe drought. Smoke reaching Texas triggered a statewide health alert.

86. Nicaragua -- 2.2 million acres burned, 1998. Over 15,000 fires burned in 1998, and the blazing acreage included protected lands in the Bosawas Biosphere Reserve.

2008-02-03T21:32:00.001-08:00

The impact of global warming in Asia

The Asian region spans polar, temperate, and tropical climates and is home to over 3 billion people. As the climate warms, many mountain glaciers may disappear, permafrost will thaw, and the northern forests are likely to shift further north. Rapid population growth and development in countries like China and India will put additional pressures on natural ecosystems and will lead to a rapid rise in the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere unless steps are taken to curtail emissions.

Fingerprints

1. Llasa, Tibet -- Warmest June on record, 1998. Temperatures hovered above 77�F for 23 days.

59. Garhwal Himalayas, India -- Glacial retreat at record pace. The Dokriani Barnak Glacier retreated 66 ft (20.1 m) in 1998 despite a severe winter. The Gangorti Glacier is retreating 98 ft (30 m) per year. At this rate scientists predict the loss of all central and eastern Himalayan glaciers by 2035.

62. Tien Shan Mountains, China -- Glacial ice reduced by one quarter in the past 40 years.

90. Southern India - Heat wave, May 2002. In the state of Andhra Pradesh temperatures rose to 120�F, resulting in the highest one-week death toll on record. This heat wave came in the context of a long-term warming trend in Asia in general. India, including southern India, has experienced a warming trend at a rate of 1�F (0.6�C) per century.

91. Nepal - High rate of temperature rise. Since the mid-1970s the average air temperature measured at 49 stations has risen by 1.8�F (1�C), with high elevation sites warming the most. This is twice as fast as the 1�F (0.6�C) average warming for the mid-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere (24 to 40�N) over the same time period, and illustrates the high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change.

93. Taiwan - Average temperature increase. The average temperature for the island has risen 1.8-2.5�F (1-1.4�C) in the last 100 years. The average temperature for 2000 was the warmest on record.

94. Afghanistan - 2001 - Warmest winter on record. Arid Central Asia, which includes Afghanistan, experienced a warming of 0.8-3.6�F (1-2�C) during the 20th century.

95. Tibet - Warmest decade in 1,000 years. Ice core records from the Dasuopu Glacier indicate that the last decade and last 50 years have been the warmest in 1,000 years. Meteorological records for the Tibetan Plateau show that annual temperatures increased 0.4�F (0.16�C) per decade and winter temperatures increased 0.6�F (0.32�C) per decade from 1955 to 1996.

96. Mongolia - Warmest century of the past millennium. A 1,738-year tree-ring record from remote alpine forests in the Tarvagatay Mountains indicates that 20th century temperatures in this region are the warmest of the last millennium. Tree growth during 1980-1999 was the highest of any 20-year period on record, and 8 of the 10 highest growth years occurred since 1950. The 20th century warming has been observed in tree-ring reconstructions of temperature from widespread regions of Eurasia, including sites in the Polar Urals, Yakutia, and the Taymir Peninsula, Russia. The average annual temperature in Mongolia has increased by about 1.3�F (0.7�C) over the past 50 years.

119. Chokoria Sundarbans, Bangladesh - Flooded mangroves. Rising ocean levels have flooded about 18,500 acres (7,500 hectares) of mangrove forest during the past three decades. Global sea-level rise is aggravated by substantial deltaic subsidence in the area with rates as high as 5.5 mm/year.

120. China - Rising waters and temperature. The average rate of sea-level rise was 0.09 +/- 0.04 inches (2.3 +/- 0.9 mm) per year over the last 30 years. Global sea-level rise was aggravated locally by subsidence of up to 2 inches (5 cm) per year for some regions due to earthquakes and groundwater withdrawal. Also, ocean temperatures off the China coast have risen in the last 100 years, especially since the 1960s.

126. Bhutan - Melting glaciers swelling lakes. As Himalayan glaciers melt glacial lakes are swelling and in danger of catastrophic flooding. Average glacial retreat in Bhutan is 100-130 feet (30-40 m) per year. Temperatures in the high Himalayas have risen 1.8�F (1�C) since the mid 1970s.

127. India - Himalayan glaciers retreating. Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at an average rate of 50 feet (15 m) per year, consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the Baspa glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter.

130. Mt. Everest - Retreating glacier.The Khumbu Glacier, popular climbing route to the summit of Mt. Everest, has retreated over 3 miles (5 km) since 1953. The Himalayan region overall has warmed by about 1.8�F (1�C) since the 1970s.

131. Kyrgyzstan - Disappearing glaciers. During 1959-1988, 1,081 glaciers in the Pamir-Altai disappeared. Temperatures in the mountains of Kyrgyztan have increased by 0.9-2.7� F (0.5-1.5�C) since the 1950s.

142. Siberia - Melting permafrost. Large expanses of tundra permafrost are melting. In some regions the rate of thawing of the upper ground is nearly 8 inches (20 cm) per year. Thawing permafrost has already damaged 300 buildings in the cities of Norilsk and Yakutsk. In Yakutsk, the average temperature of the permanently frozen ground has warmed by 2.7 �F (1.5�C) during the past 30 years.

Harbingers

18. Indonesia -- Malaria spreads to high elevations. Malaria was detected for the first time as high as 6,900 feet (2103 m) in the highlands of Irian Jaya in 1997.

50. Philippines -- Coral reef bleaching.

52. Persian Gulf -- Coral reef bleaching.

77. Korea -- Heavy rains and flooding. Severe flooding struck during July and August, 1998, with daily rainfall totals exceeding 10 inches (25.4 cm).

87. Indonesia -- Burning rainforest, 1998. Fires burned up to 2 million acres (809,371 hectares) of land, including almost 250,000 acres (101,172 hectares) of primary forest and parts of the already severely reduced habitat of the Kalimantan orangutan.

88. Khabarovsk, Russia -- Wildfires threaten tiger habitat, 1998. Drought and high winds fueled fires that destroyed 3.7 million acres (1,497,337 hectares) of taiga and threatened two important nature reserves that are habitat for the only remaining Amur tigers.

103. Bangladesh - Link between stronger El Ni�o events and cholera prevalence. Researchers found a robust relationship between progressively stronger El Ni�o events and cholera prevalence, spanning a 70-year period from 1893-1940 and 1980-2001. There has been a marked intensification of the El Ni�o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon since the 1980s, which is not fully explained by the known shifts in the Pacific basin temperature regime that began in the mid-1970s. Findings by Rodo et al. are consistent with model projections of El Ni�o intensification under global warming conditions. The authors make a strong case for the climate-health link by providing evidence for biological sensitivity to climate, meteorological evidence of climate change, and evidence of epidemiological change with global warming. The study likely represents the first piece of evidence that warming trends over the last century are affecting human disease.

105. Lake Baikal, Russia - Shorter freezing period. Winter freezing is about 11 days later and spring ice breakup is about 5 days earlier compared to a century ago. Some regions of Siberia have warmed by as much as 2.5�F (1.4�C) in just 25 years.

147. Iran - Desiccated wetlands, 2001 Ninety percent of wetlands have dried up after 2 years of extreme drought. Much of South West Asia has experienced a prolonged three-year drought that is unusual in its magnitude. Out of 102 years of record, 1999, 2000, and 2001 rank as the fifth, third, and seventh driest on record. 1999-2000 was the driest winter on record.

148. Pakistan - Longest drought on record, 1999-2001. The prolonged three-year drought, which covers much of South West Asia, has affected 2.2 million people and 16 million livestock in Pakistan.

149. Tajikistan - Lowest rainfall in 75 years, 2001. 2001 marked the third consecutive year of drought, which has destroyed half the wheat crop.

150. Korea - Worst drought in 100 years of record, 2001. It coincided with an average annual temperature increase in Asia�s temperate region, which includes Korea, by more than 1.8�F (1�C) over the past century. The warming has been most pronounced since 1970.

155. China - Disappearing Lakes, 2001. More than half of the 4,000 lakes in the Qinghai province are disappearing due to drought. The severity of the impact is exacerbated by overpumping of aquifers. Annual average temperature in China has increased during the past century, with pronounced warming since 1980. Most of the warming has been in northern areas, including Qinghai Province, and in the winter.

The impact of global warming in Antarctica

The impacts of warming temperatures in Antarctica are likely to occur first in the northern sections of the continent, where summer temperatures approach the melting point of water, 32�F (0�C). Some ice shelves in the northernmost part of Antarctica—the Antarctic Peninsula—have been collapsing in recent years, consistent with the rapid warming trend there since 1945. Scientists are also concerned about future changes in the large West Antarctic ice sheet on the main continent because its collapse could raise sea level by as much as 19 feet (5.8 meters).

Fingerprints

70. Antarctic Peninsula -- Warming 5 times global average. Since 1945, the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a warming of about 4.5�F (2.5�C). The annual melt season has increased by 2 to 3 weeks in just the past 20 years.

73. Antarctica -- Ice shelf disintegration. The 770 square mile (1,994 km²) Larsen A ice shelf disintegrated suddenly in January 1995.

74. Antarctica -- Ice shelf breakup. After 400 years of relative stability, nearly 1,150 square miles (2,978 km²) of the Larson B and Wilkins ice shelves collapsed between March 1998 and March 1999.

122. Southern Ocean - Strong warming trend. Measurements from data recorders in the Southern Ocean waters around Antarctica show a 0.3�F (0.17�C) rise in ocean temperatures between the 1950s and the 1980s.

140. Antarctica - Decreasing Ice-thickness. The permanent ice cover of nine lakes on Signey Island has decreased by about 45% since the 1950s. Average summer air temperature has warmed by 1.8�F (1�C).

141. Antarctic Peninsula - Collapsing ice-shelf, January-February 2002. The northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf, an area of 1,250 square miles (3,250 km²), disintegrated in a period of 35 days. This was the largest collapse event of the last 30 years, bringing the total loss of ice extent from seven ice shelves to 6,760 square miles (17,500 km²) since 1974. The ice retreat is attributed to the region�s strong warming trend - 4.5�F (2.5�C) in the last 50 years.

Harbingers

32. Antarctica -- Penguin population decline. Adelie Penguin populations have shrunk by 33% during the past 25 years in response to declines in their winter sea ice habitat.

The impact of global warming in Africa

The African continent is a rich mosaic of ecosystems, ranging from the snow and ice fields of Kilimanjaro to tropical rainforests to the Saharan desert.

Although it has the lowest per capita fossil energy use of any major world region, Africa may be the most vulnerable continent to climate change because widespread poverty limits countries� capabilities to adapt.

Signs of a changing climate in Africa have already emerged: spreading disease and melting glaciers in the mountains, warming temperatures in drought-prone areas, and sea-level rise and coral bleaching along the coastlines.

Fingerprints

3. Cairo, Egypt -- Warmest August on record, 1998. Temperatures reached 105.8�F (41�C) on August 6, 1998.

5. Southern Africa -- Warmest and driest decade on record, 1985-1995. Average temperature increased almost 1�F (0.56�C) over the past century.

41. Senegal -- Sea-level rise; Sea-level rise is causing the loss of coastal land at Rufisque, on the South Coast of Senegal.

61. Kenya -- Mt. Kenya's largest glacier disappearing. 92 percent of the Lewis Glacier has melted in the past 100 years.

121. World Ocean - Warming water. The world ocean has experienced a net warming of 0.11�F (0.06�C) from the sea surface to a depth of 10,000 feet (3000 m) over the past 35-45 years. More than half of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper 1000 feet (300 m), which has warmed by 0.56�F (0.31�C). Warming is occurring in all ocean basins and at much deeper depths than previously thought. These findings lend support to the hypothesis that the oceans are taking up excess heat as the atmosphere warms, and would account for the apparent discrepancy in the magnitude of the observed atmospheric warming as compared to climate model predictions.

133. Mount Kilmanjaro, Tanzania - Ice projected to disappear by 2020. 82% of Kilimanjaro�s ice has disappeared since 1912, with about one-third melting in just the last dozen years. At this rate, all of the ice will be gone in about 15 years. Scientists hypothesize that less snow on the mountain during the rainy season decreases the surface reflectiveness, leading to higher rates of absorption of heat and increased ice melt.

134. Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda - Disappearing glaciers. Since the 1990s, glacier area has decreased by about 75%. The continent of Africa warmed by 0.9� F (0.5�C) during the past century, and the five warmest years in Africa have all occurred since 1988.

Harbingers

14. Kenya -- Deadly malaria outbreak, summer, 1997. Hundreds of people died from malaria in the Kenyan highlands where the population had previously been unexposed.

17. Tanzania -- Malaria expands in mountains. Higher annual temperatures in the Usamabara Mountains have been linked to expanding malaria transmission.

51. Indian Ocean -- Coral Reef Bleaching (includes Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia).

52. Persian Gulf -- Coral reef bleaching.

57. Seychelles Islands -- Coral reef bleaching.

151. Kenya - Worst drought in 60 years, 2001. Over four million people were affected by a severely reduced harvest, weakened livestock, and poor sanitary conditions.

154. Lake Chad - Disappearing Lake. The surface area of the lake has decreased from 9,650 square miles (25,000 km²) in 1963 to 521 (1,350 km²) today. Modeling studies indicate the severe reduction results from a combination of reduced rainfall and increased demand for water for agricultural irrigation and other human needs.

156. South Africa - Burning shores, January 2000. One of the driest Decembers on record and temperatures over 104�F (40�C) fueled extensive fires along the coast in the Western Cape Province. The intensity of the fires was exacerbated by the presence of invasive vegetation species, some of which give off 300% more heat when burned compared to natural vegetation.

Global Warming:Early Warning Signs

"An increasing body of observations gives
a collective picture of a warming world
and other changes in the climate system."

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001

This map illustrates the local consequences of global warming.

FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures

Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather

Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Glaciers melting

Arctic and Antarctic warming

HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming.

Spreading disease

Earlier spring arrival

Plant and animal range shifts and population changes

Coral reef bleaching

Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding

Droughts and fires

The map of early warning signs clearly illustrates the global nature of climate changes. In its 2001 assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that, �an increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system."

While North America and Europe—where the science is strongest—exhibit the highest density of indicators, scientists have made a great effort in recent years to document the early impacts of global warming on other continents. Our map update reflects this emerging knowledge from all parts of the world.

Although factors other than climate may have intensified the severity of some of the events on the map, scientists predict such problems will increase if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not brought under control.

You can purchase a copy of the map as a 3 feet by 2 feet display poster. Please note that the hard-copy versions of the map do not contain the recently added map points (points 90 - 156).

Bill Clinton Calls for Economic Slowdown to Fight Global Warming

2008-02-02T01:49:00.003-08:00

Bill Clinton, speaking in Denver yesterday, called for industrialized nations to slow down their economies in order to cut back on greenhouse emissions. Clinton said this needs to be done in order to save the planet for our children and grandchildren.

Mr. Clinton also said that strategy would increase jobs and increase income after the initial slowdown. He also theorized that if countries such as China, Mexico, and India did not slow down their economies for environmental gain would remain poor.

Electing Mrs. Clinton, according to her husband, "will create millions and millions and millions of jobs" and an energy trust to finance bio-mass fuels and 100 mile a gallon electric hybrid plug-in cars.

Do environmentalists contribute to global warming?

2008-02-02T01:49:00.001-08:00

We could put a bigger dent in greenhouse gases, says Patrick Moore, if it weren't for environmentalists.

Expanding the use of nuclear power would let the U.S. and other nations reduce dependence on coal, one of the biggest producers of carbon dioxide and other pollutants (and industrial accidents). Nuclear plants emit virtually no greenhouse gases, and more plants would also give the green light to the electric car industry.

"They (environmentalists) are the ones who are screaming that the sky is falling and that the climate catastrophe is coming and it's going to be global and it's going to cause 40 to 50 percent of all the species to become extinct and it's going to be the end of civilization as we know it," he said in an interview with CNET News.com. "And yet, they are against nuclear energy just because there could be an accident somewhere. How could one nuclear accident be worse than the whole world being destroyed?"

But here's something about Moore's background. He is a co-founder of Greenpeace. After he left the organization, he began to think about climate change and is now a very public nuclear advocate. He even works with the Center for Sustainable Energy, a nuclear trade group.

And, he likes to point out, he's not alone. Environmentalists and scientists like Stewart Brand and Jared Diamond are also pro-nuclear. Still, there are issues with disposal.

Moore also looks at the political and safety issues surrounding nuclear

America finally wakes up to global warming crisis

2008-02-02T01:48:00.001-08:00

The sky really is falling these days.

I never thought I'd see the most politically-biased news network in the country acknowledge legitimate scientific consensus about global warming. For years, Fox News made every effort to keep concerns about global warming out of the minds of the American people - no matter how much evidence accumulated.

Fox published an online article this past Friday titled "Geophysicists: Theory of Global Warming 'Well-Established.'" The article contained news about the American Geophysical Union's press release that stated human activity during the 20th century has indisputably caused the Earth to get hotter and its climate to fall out of balance.

This is not news - scientists have been saying this stuff for years.

So why is Fox only now starting to report it?

Fox News CEO Rupert Murdoch officially announced he could no longer ignore the evidence for global warming and his company would join the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in May 2007. Murdoch committed to shifting more focus towards "climate change" in his network's coverage.

Despite his newfound interest in increasing public awareness about global warming, I still don't buy Murdoch's magninimity. His real reason for going green is - no pun intended - "the green."

Fox's advertisers motivated the network to reach out to their environmentally-conscious audiences. This move is speculated to increase ratings because of America's growing interest in the subject. Indeed - regardless of the media's selective coverage - the public's attitude about global warming has shifted.

According to an October 2007 national survey by Yale University, Gallup and the ClearVision Institute, the number of Americans who believe global warming to be an urgent threat has increased by 20 percent since 2004. Sixty-two percent of Americans believe society needs to immediately reduce carbon emissions to avoid environmental disaster. More interestingly, 40 percent of American residents say presidential candidates' positions on global warming will be an important factor in their voting decisions.

U.S. must lead on global warming

2008-02-02T01:47:00.001-08:00

I was relieved to hear President Bush acknowledge the importance of confronting global warming in his State of the Union address. However, his voluntary approach doesn’t go far enough to address this disastrous issue.

America must be a bold leader when it comes to confronting global warming. That involves passing strong federal legislation that includes a mandatory cap-and-trade system to, in the president’s own words, “slow, stop and reverse” global warming.

Right now, the U.S. Senate is considering a bill called the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act, which requires the U.S. to begin reducing our global warming pollution 2 percent per year. This legislation would implement a ground-breaking pollution cap-and-trade system for all major emitters of carbon dioxide such as power plants. It also utilizes payments by polluting companies to reduce energy costs for low-income families and to encourage innovation and new “green collar” jobs in the U.S. The bill will also fund efforts to protect America’s wildlife and natural resources from the impacts of global warming.

As a parent, I am gravely concerned about what state the planet will be in for my children. Global warming is the ball game. Climate change will have disastrous effects on the economy, jobs, and our quality of life in addition to the environment, wildlife and natural resources.

Sens. Ken Salazar and Wayne Allard need to take the lead on this issue by supporting and co-sponsoring the Climate Security Act.

Global warming in textbooks?

2008-02-02T01:46:00.001-08:00

California students are one step closer to learning about global warming in their science textbooks after the state Senate advanced new legislation Wednesday.

A bill requiring climate change to be discussed in future textbooks passed 26 to 13. It will now be sent to the Assembly.

Vallejo City Unified School District board member Ward Stewart said he agrees with talking about global warming in school. Ward, a city planner, said many cities are revising their general plans to include sections on the role of climate change.

"Any sort of added discussion in school regarding global warming or preserving natural resources is something I would support," Ward said, adding he still wants to assess the bill to see how it would affect Vallejo's public schools.

Benicia Unified School District trustee Bonnie Weidel wondered if the topic of global warming is too politically charged for textbooks. However, she said she is concerned about teaching environmental issues.

"I follow the issue, but it still seems like we as a society haven't taken a real stand on (global warming)," Weidel said. "It's fraught with a lot of political baggage. On the other hand, I am concerned about the environment. If they approve the law, it might be a message

Global warming: are cheap flights to blame

2008-02-02T01:45:00.001-08:00

As budget airlines increase, so does air travel. It's a simple case of numbers.

But, as the world is slowly being made aware of the impacts of carbon emissions on the earth's atmosphere, air travel is now being brought under the spotlight.

Although air travel contributes about 4-9 per cent to global warming, its impact are disproportionate.

Scientists in the UK have found that time of day and the season can determine the extent of the impacts of emissions.

Contrails - or vapour trails, are more readily formed at night and in the winter months. Their impact of a night is to trap more heat on the earth's surface, whilst in the winter months humid air allows contrails to form more readily.

With the recent release of the IPCC reports, more attention has been focused upon the so-called budget air lines. Naturally, this is seen as an attack on middle and low income earners, who in past generations could not afford air travel. Budget airlines have said they are an easy target, whilst the bigger global airlines are often not criticised.

However, it appears it could be a question of maintaining the status quo and waiting for others to take action. As with most of the planet's environmental problems - more people equals greater impacts. More people and greater consumerism and perceived needs - results in climate change.

As most scientists agree that the world is warming and its weather destabilising, the media is often split with about half agreeing and the other creating conclusions based upon opinion or vested interests. This has helped create an army of sceptics who tend to rely upon and trust their regular media reports. Science, it seems, is at the mercy of media interpretation.

Let's just hope we can be wise and listen to those who actually know. Every impact is crucial. With huge increases in air travel predicted in the coming decades, it may be a case of arguing over who's right whilst the planet goes into a nose dive.

Global warming: Financial implications

2008-02-02T01:44:00.001-08:00

As I write this piece, I'm sitting in my back garden, the sun's shining and a gentle breeze caresses my face.
Ahhh, it's a beautiful world it really is.
But, not according to the nearly President, Al Gore; according to him, and his recent movie, An Inconvenient Truth, we're just about at the end. The damage perpetrated on the Earth by human pollution of all kinds is wide-ranging. Seas are rising; glaciers are melting; forests are dwindling (and CO2 is increasing).
Well, that may well be true, however there is a certain belief that this is simply a cycle; a cycle that occurs every 10,000 years (remember we and our detrimental influence have only been here for about 2 of those 10).
Many scientists believe this (at least the non-prophetic ones). Furthermore, if this is the case then the cycle, if it occurs every 10,000 years, could well last for, what, a thousand, five hundred, one hundred? Any way you look at it, it's a long time to put up with El Nino type weather.

We're told that we must reduce our emissions; that it's not yet too late, that if we all pull together, Kyoto-wise, we'll be able to pull it back from the brink.
With a population of six billion and rising, finding a way to exist in such numbers is proving to be the challenge to end all challenges.
The Dead Sea is now a trickle according to reports. The once holy Dead Sea is getting smaller and smaller. What's left is being plundered' to use the actual term in the report, by a huge minerals company. Before our very eyes the Sea is dying. And for those whose only concern is financial, the report goes on to assert that buildings' foundations on the edge are in danger of collapse. Tch! It's a sad indictment that the final persuasion comes down to the cold, hard stuff'.
An unstoppable force, man's desire for wealth and power, consumes all.

Moreover, what if it's too late and we can't actually pull it back no matter what we do? No-one in any government is going to admit to such a thing because if they do, well the response will undoubtedly be one of apathy. Well, if it's too late, what's the point in trying anymore?

Or maybe Mother Earth and her weather patterns is just so big, (and we're so insignificant) that nothing we do makes the slightest difference.
We as a species are destructive it's as simple as that and if as some believe, Mother Earth is a living single organism with countless parts, she may just step in and take control.
A recent report from the WWF, claims that in the last three decades three hundred that's right three hundred species have become extinct. Soon the only place to see certain species will be in a zoo. The report goes on to claim that we are living a three world existence', meaning that the rate at which we are using the planet's commodities would take three planets to sustain. And still, man's eternal quest for the mighty dollar supersedes all else.
And in this never ending search for the mighty dollar, we'll rape and pillage the Earth and all it's commodities until there are none left and the planet,s own sustainability will be affected.
Then, dear readers, we're really screwed. Similar to trying to put the genie back in the bottle', it'll be too late.

Y'know, as I was researching the subject of the article, I came across some disturbing information, illustrating frighteningly the danger we now face. I myself know how this'll end. (But people write me off as some sort of doomsayer rich really, considering these same people have their collective heads firmly ensconced in the sand).
Now, according to Sir Michael Stern, the author of the Stern report, a recent economic report on the current effects and solutions, we all know.
A 20% shrinkage of the global economy was one point. 100 million displaced by rising sea levels another.
Melting glaciers resulting in water shortages for 1 in 6 people and the advent of climate refugees will see tens, likely hundreds of millions more displaced.
Where will these people go? Well, to the only places left to them unaffected countries. Potentially mass exoduses from the blighted land to the more prosperous (which actually won't be prosperous for long once the millions find their way there).
A bleak picture indeed and one that calls for immediate action to prevent the eventual costs exceeding trillions of pounds.

However

Previously, it had been recorded, that this El Nino effect was simply part of a cycle experienced by Mother Nature herself. A theory I chose to believe as it happens.
This latest report seems to offer an alternative theory; that our outrageously high level of taking and polluting is actually the culprit. The Stern Report offers, when considered (and typical of the English) the only realistic answer.
However, the sort of shift required to cease and repair the problem means we would have to return to something resembling caveman times. That, simply will not happen.
So we're left with the choice of taxing the polluters to stop them polluting. Of course the actual guilty (the rich), won't pay a cent under the powerful protecting their own' theory and the ordinary Joes (you and I) will be harassed because they don't recycle their plastic.

Although what if, as mentioned earlier, this is as some less alarmist scientists believe, just a cycle?
Y'see, we have to understand, we're looking at this from a human scale; this is happening on a global scale and perhaps we have ideas above our station. Let's say, for example, the Earth is a billion years old and civilization's been around for about 2000.
According to the boffins, this cycle occurs every, what, 10,000 years?
If we compress Earth's existence into a year, the cycle then occurs about once a week and we've been here about 20 mins.
Now, with that in mind, we can now see our place in things.
The scientists who make these claims also assert that our pollution is so small in global terms as to be insignificant. And that being the case, the billions we need to spend in a desperate attempt to stem our filth, will result in bringing a plethora of economic disasters to society. And given the actual scale of the event, have absolutely no discernible effect.
Those of you with a nervous disposition had better sit down and grab a stiff drink.
Our civilized planet is unravelling. It won't make the slightest bit of difference to Earth; it'll be here for several more billions of years, regardless of what happens. Some species will dominate, some will falter (that would be us), but ultimately, life will go on.
What can we do?' I hear you ask. The short answer nothing, nothing whatsoever. And the long answer, well, it's not much longer we can enjoy our lives while we're here, because if they're right and this is merely the cycle of a much mightier entity, man, despite all his intelligence and brilliance will perish. If you're Christian, you'd better start praying!

One thing I know for certain if we keep stuffing the planet with humans, nature will step in, as it has done in the past and the results will be Armageddon-like. Never mind Katrina. In the words of Jack Nicholson's Joker in Batman you ain't seen nothing yet"! Are you ready?

Australia experiences hottest ever January: weather bureau

2008-02-02T01:43:00.001-08:00

Australia experienced its hottest January on record this year, with the dry continent heating up as part of the global warming process, the bureau of meteorology said Friday.

Temperatures rose by between 1.0 and 2.0 degrees in most parts of the country, with the national average hitting 29.2 degrees Celsius (84 Fahrenheit) for the summer month, said the bureau's head of climate analysis, David Jones.

"It's a remarkable number certainly. Averaging, as we did across the whole country 1.3 degrees above average is the highest temperature we've seen in our history of records for Australia in January," he told AFP.

Jones said it was a steady, persistent warmth rather than a heatwave which saw Australia heat up everywhere except in parts of northeastern Queensland state, where flooding was widespread.

"Australia is warming up as part of the global warming process," Jones said. "Certainly record high temperatures are coming significantly faster than what we would have expected if it wasn't the case of global warming."

He said warming in Australia was expected to be in line with the global projections.

"It's just simply not surprising. The world is warming, Australia has warmed by about a degree (since 1950). It just means we get fewer cold days, fewer cold weeks, fewer cold months, and more and more hot ones," he said.

"But I guess what is different to the rest of the world is that Australia is already very hot, whereas many other countries around the world have the luxury of a cool climate."

The most extreme temperatures in January were in Western Australia and the Northern Territory -- regions with vast tracts of desert -- which had their hottest January on record.

In the outback town of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory, the coolest day of the month was 36 degrees (97 Fahrenheit).

"Global Cooling" Identified as Part of Global Warming

2008-02-02T01:42:00.001-08:00

Charmangy's childhood home

Dr. E. L. Charmagny of the Indiana Institute for Science positively identified cooler temperatures as part of global warming.

"The recent cold snap in America's midwest area proves that global warming is real," said Dr. Charmagny while enjoying a hamburger sandwich at a local McDonald's restaurant. He explained, "People don't understand that global warming takes many forms, including global cooling, an important part of global warming."

He cited as an example that when he was young winters were "a lot harsher", remarking, "It was very cold for days on end, and there was lots of snow. That's a scientific fact, I remember it! Now it's clearly warmer."

"Young punks nowadays take time off from school if there's two inches of snow on the ground. They need to have those iPods taken away from them, that'll teach them something."

Dr. Charmagny went on to explain that the cool weather in the Midwest is the Earth's 'sympathetic' reaction to global warming. "It gets so warm, that when it gets cold, it gets really cold. It's like when it's quiet after a lot of noise, it seems especially quiet. Again, that's a scientific phenomenon you can read about in any school kid's science book. If these little brats even read their schoolbooks. Brats."

Dr. Charmagny explains his theories on global warming in his new book "The Unavoidable Disaster." He also tackles questions about the environment, space exploration, and "why kids today think they're so special, with their fluoridated water and their Myspace."

Global Warming = Strong Hurricanes

2008-02-02T01:41:00.000-08:00

BOULDER, Colo. (Ivanhoe Newswire) -- According to new research, hurricanes in the North Atlantic are stronger and larger than ever before. Scientists now say they know what's to blame.

Winds topping over 75 miles per hour … rain slamming down … waves crashing into the coast!

Some climate scientists believe hurricanes in the North Atlantic loom more dangerous than ever. But now they say … they think know why.

"Since about 1970, there has been a warming of the global oceans including the areas where the hurricanes form due to increases in carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," Kevin Trenberth, NCAR Scientist in Boulder, Colo., told Ivanhoe.

Trenberth builds his case asking the tough questions. "Do they get more intense? Do they get bigger? Do they last longer? Are there more of them?" Trenberth asks.

Over the past 35 years, the Atlantic's sea surface temperature has increased one degree Fahrenheit. The result … a four-percent increase of atmospheric water vapor and a six to eight-percent increase in rainfall. Conditions that contribute to larger, more forceful, hurricanes.

The cause -- Trenberth says predominantly global warming. "What we think is likely to happen, they will get more intense, they will likely get a little bigger, but maybe there may not be quite as many," Trenberth said.

Other scientists aren't so convinced and believe the warming is a natural occurrence, but either way -- a forecast for the future that impacts us all.

The American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

Report: Climate meeting in Hawaii could yet help global-warming treaty

2008-02-02T01:40:00.000-08:00

HONOLULU, The United States, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. hosted climate meeting of major economies, which will be kicked off on Wednesday, could yet help to draft a new global-warming treaty, according to a report carried by The Christian Science Monitor on Wednesday.

The report said the developing countries and the developed ones have many disputes over clean-energy technologies and long-term emissions reduction goals while the United States was criticized for its negative role and actions.

Delegates from these countries in Bali last month angrily noted that developed countries are giving far less than they have pledged. Developing countries insist that they need the help to make the emissions reduction commitments - however limited - a new climate treaty might require, said the article.

U.S. President George W. Bush's efforts have met with some skepticism, especially after the first meeting last September which one senior environmental hand described as "Climate 101 when the rest of the world was in graduate school," it said.

One test of how serious the White House is about the process will come in discussions of future actions. And until now, the administration has emphasized actions it has already taken - setting an interim greenhouse gas "intensity" target for the U.S. economy, or the amount of emissions permitted per unit of GDP, pumping money into climate change research, and the recent adoption of mandatory fuel economy standards.

"The key question, however, is: What's next?" asked the report.

"I would find the effort much more serious when the U.S. government decides to put on the table what it thinks an appropriate near-term response and policy effort would be," Joseph Aldy, co-director of Harvard University's Project on International Climate Agreements was quoted as saying.

"At some point, we need to see the ideas the Bush administration has on both of these fronts," and in a quantifiable way, he added.

Representatives of 17 of the world's major economies, and biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, will meet in Honolulu, Hawaii on Wednesday to discuss how they can tackle climate change in the coming decades.

The idea of bring world's major economies for climate change talks was initiated by President George W. Bush in May 2007, when the United States was under growing pressure to contribute more to solve the problem of greenhouse gas emissions.

The broad concept of pulling major emitters together outside the U.N. process to better inform it is a useful one with a fair amount of support, Elliot Diringer, director of international strategies at the Pew Center for Global Climate Change in Arlington, Va, was quoted as saying.

Still, expectations "are not high," Diringer said. "As other government see it, this is not the means for cutting a final deal "on climate "nor is this the administration to cut it with."

Is global warming unstoppable?

2008-02-02T01:37:00.000-08:00

YES
It was not until I was nearly 40 and returned to school that I had any idea about how dynamic our planet is. My return to school as a geology major was the direct result of a job I had taken with a major oil company. One of my first assignments was to type the edited manuscript for a training course on petroleum exploration for recently graduated geologists, who believed they knew everything about geology, but in reality knew little or nothing about petroleum exploration. Typing that manuscript was my first hint about the dynamism of Mother Earth.

When the global warming scare started, it sounded frightening and serious, but only momentarily. I began checking geology information sources to verify that what I thought I knew was still correct, and no new theories had disproven previous studies and conclusions.

Then I began to wonder why so many so-called illustrious scientists were joining the global warming hoopla. My impression was that they either weren't earth scientists and had specialized in other disciplines, or Mr. Gore had somehow convinced them that this was a stoppable man-made situation. Perhaps they were dazzled by the thought of having their names linked with Gore's. I was reassured only by the occasional letter to the editor of the local newspaper from professional geologists who boldly questioned the whole idea.

One generally accepted fact is that for the last 7,000-10,000 years, we have been emerging from The Great Ice Age. During that time, four cycles of cooling and warming have been identified and named. Many scientists believe that most recent Great Ice Age was only the latest in the planet's history, but sound evidence of similar earlier events is lacking.

What is certain is that there have been many climate changes during the earth's history, though the reasons for many remain uncertain. Some, though, are known, including the world-wide effects of massive volcanic eruptions that can lead to mini-ice ages or relatively short cycles of extreme climate changes. New England experienced below average temperatures from 1811-1817, with 1816 being by far the worst year.

Between 1812 and 1815, there were 4 major volcanic eruptions. They spewed enough ash and debris into the sky to make a cold period worse. In the northeastern U.S. in 1816, snow fell in July, and summer temperatures were significantly below normal. Similar latitudes on the other side of the planet experienced the similar conditions. Crops that managed to begin growing early in the season were killed off by summer frost, ice, and snow; people froze to death.

So in addition to the earth's normal cyclical temperature shifts, massive eruptions, meteor strikes, and other natural phenomena can at least temporarily affect the climate.

We know that large areas of North America were under water in the past. If you want the evidence, get a good fossil hunting guidebook, head for the Colorado Rockies, and find for yourself the evidence of ancient seas and the fossilized remains of sea creatures on high mountain tops. Before the Rocky Mountains were pushed up, they were part of an ancient sea floor, during a period when there were no glaciers and the oceans rose dramatically and created inland seas.

When the temperatures dropped, the inland seas dried up as the water evaporated and fell to earth again as snow, which was compressed to ice, which formed glaciers that reached well into the northern latitudes. Now the cycle seems to be at least temporarily reversing.

The glaciers are retreating, as they have done before, causing the sea level to rise. How long this warming will last is impossible to know. In information found on the internet, I saw no mention of whether this might be another temporary glacial retreat, or perhaps is the beginning of an extended period of warming. It doesn't matter. Even if it's temporary, it's unlikely that it will completely reverse during our lifetimes, which do not occupy more than a fraction of a tick of the second hand on the geological clock.

There could, of course, be an abrupt temporary change caused by other geological events. For example, the magma chamber under Yellowstone National Park is under constant surveillance by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) because the magma has been rising to the surface, causing surface deformation and seismic activity of low to moderate magnitude. In December 2007, 184 earthquakes were recorded, with the highest magnitude being 3.6.

According to the USGS, "Three extraordinarily large explosive eruptions in the past 2.1 million years created a giant caldera within or west of Yellowstone National Park " One of my geology instructors firmly believed that a Yellowstone eruption could happen again at any time. The USGS evidently agrees and issues daily volcano status reports, aviation warnings, and earthquake activity summaries. Another extraordinarily large eruption will, no doubt, eject enough pyroclastic material into the atmosphere to cool things down for a while by blocking much of the sun's light from reaching and warming the planet.

There are many actions we can and should take to improve quality of life, such as reducing the emissions that cause smog and pollution and make our air dangerous to all living things; we can find new sources of energy to heat our homes and businesses; we can stop filling every vacant bit of countryside with waste that may never biodegrade.

I do not believe, however, that we can control the normal dynamic processes of the planet. I must admit that trying to scare people into believing that we can seems to be an effective way to get support to make your own movie, win a Nobel prize, and get your name back on the front page! But it won't stop global warming.

Let us look at a few facts surrounding both global warming and global cooling that the media and the strongest proponents of the theory ignore and do not like to address in any way. The best way to do this is to give a brief and rather rough history sketch.

Two hundred million years ago, the earth was a hot, steamy, vegetated ball. Average temperatures were much higher than they are today. Great but shallow inland seas covered much of the continents and plant life grew in such profusion as to make the densest rain forest of today pale in comparison. Just as today, water vapor was the greatest of greenhouse gases. Polar ice caps didn't exist, which was nothing new since for over nine tenths of the time the earth has been around, it hasn't had ice caps.

Through it all, there were uncountable times of temperature fluctuation and climate change.

Then, for reasons not at all understood, global temperatures began to fall. Some scientists attribute this to the meteor impact 65 million years ago that they believe caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. Other theories have also been put forth, but the cause is not truly important to this discussion as will be seen.

As temperatures dropped, precipitation began to fall as snow in the extreme northern and southern latitudes. Instead of melting, the temperatures were just low enough for it to begin accumulating. Since snow and the ice it compacts into reflect sunlight back into space, the temperatures continued to drop, producing yet more snow. Over a great deal of time by our way of thinking of it, probably hundreds of thousands of years, much of the globe became covered in a dense and thick sheet of ice. Most of what was to become Europe and North America lay under a crushing blanket of ice as much as one to two miles thick.

Still, there were fluctuations in global temperature, and at times the ice sheets retreated nearly to where they are today, before once again growing. The periods of heavy ice are called glacial periods, and those with little ice are called interglacial periods.

The last interglacial period began between 10,000 and 11,000 years ago. Ice sheets dwindled, but not at a constant rate, rather in starts and stops. One of the peaks of this interglacial occurred about 2,000 years ago, when global temperatures were several degrees higher than they are now, but still far less than before the glaciation first began. After that, average temperatures dropped until a few centuries ago, when they again began to rise. They are still rising, having risen less than a degree in the last century, and though temperatures are still less than 2,000 years ago.

It takes very little to realize that while we don't fully understand the reason for the fluctuations, it is obviously a naturally occurring event or chain of events. This being the case, it is just a matter of time before the trend reverses itself once again, as it has so many times before. It is possible or even probable than in the coming thousands of years, most of earth will again be encased in ice.

The initial answer must then be; no, global warming isn't unstoppable. Nature caused it, and nature can and almost certainly will stop and reverse it. If the question was changed a little though, so that it read, "Is global warming unstoppable by man?", the answer would be Yes. Man hasn't been around nearly long enough to have much to do with this natural process. He doesn't have the knowledge, power, or ability to do much to affect temperature changes on a global scale. Even a man caused nuclear winter would have only a passing effect on global temperatures.

As destructive as man is, as much as he pollutes, as much as he squanders, it is only his arrogance and overwhelming belief in his own self-importance that allows him to think that he can affect in any great way, the temperatures of the entire earth. Make no mistake; man can decimate all life on this planet. But he cannot control the natural planetary cycles that have been in place for billions of years. Man is neither that powerful, nor that important.

Consumption is focus of global warming event

2008-02-02T01:35:00.000-08:00

Some Michigan State University professors and Lansing School District teachers also participated in the program during their classes this week.

"I just wanted them to think about their own consumption," Harrow said of her audience, which included a mix of LCC students and instructors.

"I didn't want to tell them what to buy, but I wanted to give them the information by which they can make those decisions."

Harrow's answers to her two questions: The can may be recycled in more places than the jar, while any environmental gain from the organic milk are more than offset by the amount of emissions generated transporting the milk across the country.

LCC instructor Arthur Wohlwill said switching to a more eco-friendly lifestyle isn't just a matter of sacrifices. For example, someone who walks or bikes instead of driving can save on the cost of gasoline.

"It's simply not just sacrifices we have to make, but we can benefit from those choices as well," he said.

Ben Mills, a 21-year-old elementary education student at LCC, said he went to the seminars for extra credit in a class, but stayed to try and find a way to make a difference.

"People my age want to do something about (climate change); they just don't know what to do," Mills said.

"People just look at it as such a big problem, but if you just take small steps, that's a good start."

Plans to Fight Global Warming

2008-02-02T01:33:00.000-08:00

Plans to Fight Global Warming

By Tammy Mori

The issues of global warming and renewable energy are now in the international spotlight.

Leaders from sixteen different economies met in Honolulu to discuss future option, and that two day conference wrapped up tonight.

All over the world we're feeling the impacts of climate change, or global warming.

And experts say in order to limit the rise in the global temperature, we'll need to reduce carbon emissions worldwide by at least 50-percent by 2050.

The leaders in this room represent 80-percent of the worlds energy use and 80-percent of greenhouse gas emission..

So their discussions are aimed at one thing.

"To result in a decision in 2009 for long term cooperative action," says James Connaughton, White House Council on Environmental Quality.

They need to decide how to collectively cut carbon emissions in half, by increasing energy efficiency and expanding renewable energies.

And that global committment, starts in our own backyard.

"Hawaii, I'm not proud to say, is the most oil dependent state in America," says Governor Linda Lingle.

More than 90-percent or our energy supply is being imported.

"Also have the highest utility rates anywhere in america and highest gasoline rate," adds Lingle.

The Governor says our state is working towards changing that reality by finding innovative ways to convert our natural resources like sun, wind, waves into energy.

"Next week, a major announcement about wave energy project off maui coast," she continues.

And our state just signed an initiative early this week with the Department of Energy- promising some changes

"70-percent of all our energy coming from clean energy coming from one generation," explains Lingle.

But this reduction in carbon emissions will not mean anything in a global sense unless others take the same initiative

"Our success as a world will increase exponentially when we work together," says Lingle.

And that's something this group of United Nations leaders says they are committed to doing.

"It goes 2 ways, government can take action, but citizens can take action as well," says Connaughton.

This international council will be meeting again in France this April.

Story Updated: Feb 1, 2008 at 1:46 AM HST

Global Warming is Distrupting Water Supplies

2008-02-02T01:32:00.000-08:00

A century's worth of water infrastructure built across the American West is being thwarted by global warming, according to two independent studies. "We have built all of our infrastructure to maximize the world as we know it," a researcher said.

Now, that world is changing, and it's due to human activity, the studies report. Scientists systematically examined variations in snowpack and stream flows and concluded that 60 percent of the changes had no natural explanation.

Winter snowpacks have traditionally stored water while reservoirs fulfill water needs during the winter. The reservoirs are re-filled when snow melts in the spring. Now, rain falls instead of snow, and water is wasted as reservoirs over-fill.

Will global warming result in more earthquakes?

2008-02-02T01:29:00.002-08:00

YES

It is theoretically possible that global warming could cause more earthquakes, due to the melting of the polar ice caps, and the redistribution of weight worldwide. Back when the three gorges dam was starting to be built, some scientists warned that the weight of the water being held behind the dam could cause earthquakes in the region.

Likewise, the melting of the ice caps is going to relieve some of the weight that is now stored in the form of millions of tons of ice. In turn, due to the centrifugal forces created by the earths rotation, this water will be redistributed to the equatorial region which will increase the pressure on the sea floors around the world.

This accompanied with lunar influences could lead to an increase of seismic events worldwide. All of this will be slow to occur of course, but with the polar ice caps melting at a faster rate than scientists predicted, we could theoretically see this beginning by time the sea level raises fifteen feet.

That much water weight would increase stress on faults on the ocean floor, especially in subduction zones like the Cascadia Subduction Zone located off the coast of Oregon, Washington, and Canada. These earthquakes would be devastating to large cities even hundreds of miles away from the ruptured area, and seaside communities would be endangered by massive tsunami's all along the pacific rim.

This subject will have to be studied more by geologists over the coming years to decide just how much of a threat this could be.

I fear that the effects of global warming are far over-hyped by the media and others such as Al Gore. On that note, I investigated global warming and it is true that global warming is occuring, which can be verified on the NASA website. However the major cause of global warming is arguably from our sun and not automobiles or cow's farting. If you have seen "An Inconvenient Truth," I suggest you also check out, "The Great Global Warming Swindle" on youtube, so an informed decision can be made. Twelve errors, only on the basic premises of Al Gores movie have been found to be incorrect or questionable by the magistrate of England such that the movie cannot be shown in schools as a non-fiction movie. Albeit, I agree we should conserve energy as well as limit our consumption of meat as a health and planetary friendly issue. Unfortunately, we do not have a large affect on the environment as the media would propose.
Earthquakes are not likely to be affected by global warming. The earths core is the prominent heat affecting the likelihood of earthquakes and volcanoes. The atmospheric temperature change, less than 1 degree Farenheit in the last 100 years, will have little to no effect on that temperature, especially comparing it to the extreme cold of space when not warmed by the sun, which is half of the time anually. I have an engineering degree and the definition of heat is: The transfer of thermal energy through a system boundary. In our case the boundary is our atmosphere and generally the heat from our planet transfers out of that boundary. Due to the sun's recent activities and some minor greenhouse affects we have netted a positive thermal engergy recently. In the long run the earth will cool down and lose all of it's thermal energy.
Scientists have been studying the effect of melting permafrost in Canada. They have noticed that the additional CO2(Carbon Dioxide) produced has resulted in an increase in plant growth which resulted in less CO2 and more O2 oxygen in the areas. That is a benifit to us humans.
The melting of the polar ice caps will not change the mass distribution of water on the planet. The ice caps have varied amounts of melting each year. As noted in, "The Great Global Warming Swindle," a scientist who has been studying this for over twenty years does not see a significant change compared to what has been noted historically. The hypothesis that the water will be redistributed to the equatorial regions is erroneous, unless there is some reason the earth will be spinning faster due to global warming(not), which I think we all would notice. The 'mass' of the water at or near the poles will remain about the same even if it melts. Remember, ice is not as dense as water. If the ice caps melted significantly, there would be some increase of sea levels in some geographic areas. I would not choose to live in an area that is technically below sea level for this reason.
Lunar influences will not change significantly. Even if global warming continues and we have significant polar cap melting it will be a slow process. Plenty of time to relocate where necessary. The geographic position of the water on the earth will not change the moons orbit, since the 'mass' of the earth will not change even due to manmade global warming. The warming of the moon by the sun will also not change the moons mass. Therefore the Force(F) between the moon and the earth will remain constant, F = G*(Mass*Mass/r squared.) This is simply Newton's law of gravitation.
As a matter of fact, I propose, by a more homogeneous dispersal of the water on the planet there would be less likelihood of earthquakes on the planet affected by lunar orbits. That being said, the current model supports plate techtonics as the cause of earthquakes. Assuming this model is correct, the relieving of stresses by water re-distribution which is the most elastic mass of our planet may result in some earthquakes happening. The basis of my argument is that less earthquakes will happen by the relieving of the stresses due to the water redistribution than would occur if this change did not occur.
One final point. If earthquakes were to occur in the Cascadia Subduction Zone as a proponent of the opposing opinion suggests. The waves in the Pacific rim would be minimal compared to the possible Tsunami's which would occur much farther away. Tsunami's, although caused by undersea earthquakes carry the brunt of the force thousands of miles away by allowing the swell to develop and wreak much havoc on far distant shores.
Finally, there is a possibility of a change in the dipole of the planet in the latter part of 2012. The Mayan calendar ends then, and they were quite the astronomers. It is during this time when the earth passes through the galactic plane. If the poles flip, the position of magnetic north and south may not change to equally opposite sides of the planet, depending on the makeup of the earth and the distance from the core. This may indeed cause great earth changes, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis or may not happen at all. It is still heatedly debated. Much like 'Global Warming,' we do not have anything to say or do about it.
The best advice is to live each day like it is your last. Enjoy life, Love your loved ones and seek your own agnostic or spiritual peace.

Winter '08 Could Use More Global Warming

2008-02-02T01:29:00.001-08:00

Boy, if it weren’t for global warming, it’s frightening to imagine how cold this winter might be.

So, thank you, global warming, for taking the edge off and making each day just a little warmer. Because even though we’re setting all kinds of cold and snow records around the world, it could be a lot worse, right?

Come to think of it, February could use another holiday, not to mention warmer temperatures, so how about we create Global Warming Appreciation Day? It's our way of giving thanks for that extra warmth of a half degree celsius.

Seriously, you gotta admire, or feel sorry for, the dedication of the climate change crowd. They’ve been braving all kinds of cold, nasty weather this winter to get out the message that it’s actually warming. It's a remarkable ability to persevere in spite of the obvious. Speaking of which, have you seen today’s San Francisco Chronicle front page? It shows a global warming/water crisis piece right next to one about all the snow they’re getting in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. (Thanks to Newsbusters.org)

And since California gets a lot of its fresh water from the winter snow pack, I was really confused about why there might be a water crisis. I guess it must take at least a PhD to understand how dangerous all this global warming stuff is.

Global warming may affect tourism

2008-02-02T01:27:00.000-08:00

Scientist James Lofgren of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s office in Ann Arbor discusses the effects of global warming on the Great Lakes region during a presentation Thursday at Siena Heights University in Adrian. — Telegram photo by

Increasing temperatures and changes in the overturning of water in the Great Lakes are due to global warming.

By David Panian

Daily Telegram Staff Writer

ADRIAN — Tourism and shipping in the Great Lakes region could be affected by the warming of the Earth, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist told an audience Thursday in Adrian.

Increasing air and lake temperatures, changes in the “overturning” of water in the Great Lakes, less ice and changes in the seasonality of water runoff are all likely due to global warming, Brent Lofgren of NOAA’s Ann Arbor office told the audience at Siena Heights University. He was speaking as part of “Focus the Nation,” a teach-in at schools across the country.

“I’m here to present you with what we believe are the best scientific facts,” Lofgren said.

Winter temperatures in the Great Lakes region are expected to increase during the 21st century from the current 34 degrees average to 43 degrees, Lofgren said, with winter precipitation increasing from about 22 inches per year to about 30 inches per year.

“That’s not necessarily snow,” he said. “If it’s rainfall … that converts runoff into lakes at a different time of year (than usual).”

It could mean less runoff into lakes and streams in the spring.

How that would affect lake levels is unclear, Lofgren said, explaining that some studies show lake levels increasing and others show them declining.

“My opinion is that it is more likely to go down in the next 50 years,” he said. “After that it may change.”

Should lake levels decrease, that could affect shipping, Lofgren said, as ships would have to carry less cargo in order to navigate the shallower waters.

However, he said, many lakefront property owners like having the wide beaches created by lower lake levels. Then again, pleasure boaters tend to like higher lake levels that keep the water closer to their existing docks.

Less ice would also affect shipping lanes as well as animals’ winter habitats, he said.

With changes in water temperature and the thermal structure of the Great Lakes come possible changes in the suitability of the water for the animals and other organisms that live in them, Lofgren said. The lakes also currently “overturn” twice a year where the water inverts and mixes nutrients from the lake bottoms throughout the water. That could change to only once a year, he said.

Global warming is caused by the collection of various kinds of gases in the atmosphere, primarily carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and water vapor, Lofgren said. Those gases help retain infrared radiation rather than letting that which reflects off the Earth to return to space. Water vapor is a significant contributor to global warming because it is caused by warming.

“If it wasn’t there, the warming due to carbon dioxide would be quite small,” he said.

There have been models explaining global warming since the 1960s, Lofgren said, with those models becoming more detailed over time. Now they have atmospheric gases broken down into various types, with some acting as coolants, and take into account non-atmospheric changes, such as changes in vegetation growth.

The relationship between the greenhouse gases and coolants can be tricky, Lofgren said. For example, he said sulfate aerosols are emitted by automotive exhaust along with carbon dioxide. While the sulfate aerosols reflect heat radiation before it gets to the Earth, it may only be masking the true effects of the carbon dioxide. Lofgren explained that the sulfate aerosols stay in the atmosphere for only a few weeks while carbon dioxide remains much longer. He said if automotive emissions were to be completely reduced, the sulfate aerosols would dissipate, leaving the longer-lasting carbon dioxide behind without the cooling effect of the sulfate aerosols.

As part of the teach-in, a panel of Siena and Adrian College students talked about what students can do to protect the environment.

Sharon Parks, an Adrian College senior, suggested eating and shopping locally, meaning buying food and products made within 100 miles. She said that would promote Michigan businesses and use fewer resources to transport the goods. She also said students should learn at least a little bit about environmental issues because they can be put to use in their future careers.

Cat Griebe, an Adrian sophomore, talked about her experiences at the Power Shift 2007 conference in Washington and lobbying Congress to pass legislation to reduce carbon emissions, not allow new coal-fired electricity plants and promote “green” jobs. She encouraged Thursday’s attendees to write letters to their representatives in Congress and to join or start environmental groups on their campuses.

As an alternative to using plastic drink bottles, Siena junior Kayla Palmer suggested using a reusable stainless steel bottle. She said getting away from plastic bottles would reduce the amount of energy used to make and ship them.

Siena junior James Felan promoted recycling, shopping locally and using products made from organic materials. He suggested they make even small changes in their lifestyles, including recycling and turning off lights in unused rooms.

“As students … college is a time where you develop habits that will carry through your lives,” he said. “If we can all take small steps together, it’s one large step.”

$20 Trillion Needed to Fight Global Warming

2008-02-02T01:20:00.001-08:00

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reported that global warming could come at a high economic cost to the world. Ban estimates that it could cost up to $20 trillion over two decades for cleaner energy sources, harming those who earn low incomes and are unable to quickly adapt.

In his 52-page report, Ban says that global investments of $15 trillion to $20 trillion over the next 20 to 25 years may be necessary "to place the world on a markedly different and sustainable energy trajectory."

The Associated Press reported that Ban provides an overview of U.N. climate efforts in preparation for the 192-nation General Assembly’s two-day climate debate in February. That debate is intended to shape U.N. policy on climate change leading up to a new climate treaty in 2009, which will replace the Kyoto Treaty when it expires in 2012 thus shaping the course of climate change policy for decades to come.

The Kyoto pact currently requires 37 industrial nations to reduce greenhouse gases by an average of 5 percent.

Lately, the spotlight has been on the United States as it is the only major industrial nation to reject the treaty Many are focusing on the upcoming election as an opportunity to take new approaches to climate change issues.

The global energy industry spends about $300 billion a year in new plants, transmission networks and other new investment, according to U.N. figures.

"Cutting emissions is a very important dimension, but that's not enough for this equation," Srgjan Kerim, a Macedonian diplomat and economics professor and is president of the U.N. General Assembly told AP. "Inventing new technologies, renewable energies, investing more in research and development, is also a very viable way and remedy for resolving the problem."

A Nobel Prize-winning U.N. team of scientists, called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned of severe consequences such as rising seas and droughts if drastic changes of emissions are not made.

The panel advised that emissions should be reduced by 25 percent to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

"To approach the issue must be a forward looking way," Kerim told AP. "We have to now try to find a way out. And to find a way out, you don't look in the rear mirror which shows you the back of your car."

Richard Branson, whose Virgin brand has made him a billionaire, decided to invest in “biofuels.” Kerim told AP that Branson will be a special guest at the assembly meeting.

Like Ban, who said in December that his No. 1 priority is persuading the world to agree to new controls on global warming gases before the end of 2009, Kerim calls the challenges of climate change "my flagship topic."

Ban warned that climate change would have a greater affect on women than men “as it increases the risk to the most vulnerable and less empowered social groups," he said.

"Women in poorer communities are going to face greater challenges protecting their children from the spread of diseases, polluted water, water shortages and so on," Annie Petsonk, a lawyer for the advocacy group Environmental Defense, said.

$20 Trillion Needed to Fight Global Warming

2008-02-02T01:20:00.000-08:00

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reported that global warming could come at a high economic cost to the world. Ban estimates that it could cost up to $20 trillion over two decades for cleaner energy sources, harming those who earn low incomes and are unable to quickly adapt.

In his 52-page report, Ban says that global investments of $15 trillion to $20 trillion over the next 20 to 25 years may be necessary "to place the world on a markedly different and sustainable energy trajectory."

The Associated Press reported that Ban provides an overview of U.N. climate efforts in preparation for the 192-nation General Assembly’s two-day climate debate in February. That debate is intended to shape U.N. policy on climate change leading up to a new climate treaty in 2009, which will replace the Kyoto Treaty when it expires in 2012 thus shaping the course of climate change policy for decades to come.

The Kyoto pact currently requires 37 industrial nations to reduce greenhouse gases by an average of 5 percent.

Lately, the spotlight has been on the United States as it is the only major industrial nation to reject the treaty . Many are focusing on the upcoming election as an opportunity to take new approaches to climate change issues.

The global energy industry spends about $300 billion a year in new plants, transmission networks and other new investment, according to U.N. figures.

"Cutting emissions is a very important dimension, but that's not enough for this equation," Srgjan Kerim, a Macedonian diplomat and economics professor and is president of the U.N. General Assembly told AP. "Inventing new technologies, renewable energies, investing more in research and development, is also a very viable way and remedy for resolving the problem."

A Nobel Prize-winning U.N. team of scientists, called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned of severe consequences such as rising seas and droughts if drastic changes of emissions are not made.

The panel advised that emissions should be reduced by 25 percent to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

"To approach the issue must be a forward looking way," Kerim told AP. "We have to now try to find a way out. And to find a way out, you don't look in the rear mirror which shows you the back of your car."

Richard Branson, whose Virgin brand has made him a billionaire, decided to invest in “biofuels.” Kerim told AP that Branson will be a special guest at the assembly meeting.

Like Ban, who said in December that his No. 1 priority is persuading the world to agree to new controls on global warming gases before the end of 2009, Kerim calls the challenges of climate change "my flagship topic."

Ban warned that climate change would have a greater affect on women than men “as it increases the risk to the most vulnerable and less empowered social groups," he said.

"Women in poorer communities are going to face greater challenges protecting their children from the spread of diseases, polluted water, water shortages and so on," Annie Petsonk, a lawyer for the advocacy group Environmental Defense, said.

Above-average snowfall during January has its good, bad side

2008-02-02T01:19:00.000-08:00

Lindi Brown shovels snow away from her car so she can drive it Friday morning in Logan. (Eli Lucero/Herald Journal)

By Tyler Riggs

Published:

Saturday, February 2, 2008 2:59 AM CST

January 2008 won’t go down as the snowiest month on record, but if you ask any of the thousands of Cache residents who were put in charge of home snow removal last month, they’ll tell you there was enough of the white stuff.

“Almost every morning it seems there was another storm,” said Clint Martin, who was using a snowblower to clear the driveway of his Logan home Friday morning. “I know we need the water, but gosh, I’m about tired of it.”

Ask around this time of year and a lot of people will agree with Martin when it comes to snow: “We need it the water, but we’re ready for spring.”

But if you thought there was more snow than normal last month, you’re right. The average amount of snow in Cache Valley for January is 12.1 inches, said Utah Climate Center Meteorologist Alan Moller, but last month Logan received about 27 inches.

While that’s quite a ways off of the January record of 43.7 inches that fell in 1949, it’s a lot more than many residents are used to.

“Comparing it to last year, we had a monthly total of 6.7 inches,” Moller said. “Last year was a bit drier.”

As for the entire snow season so far, which runs from September through April? Northern Utah is looking pretty good. According to numbers from the Utah Snow Survey, which measures the percent of water in the mountain watersheds, the Bear River Basin is at about 98 percent of average snowpack.

Comparing this snow season to last year, Moller said, Cache Valley is looking great. So far this snow season, the valley has received 53.3 inches of snow — 10 more than the valley saw the entire 2006-07 season.

“That’s helping out the water year quite a bit,” Moller said.

There may be relief from the snow on the horizon, Moller said, but not before another storm hits the valley starting Sunday.

“Right now there’s hints of maybe some high pressure ridging that could kind of give us a break from the storms later next week,” Moller said. “We’ve just been hit with the storm that we’ve had and it’s stuck around since December.”

Rumors of a change in weather patterns won’t keep Martin from fueling his snowblower, however.

Said Martin: “I wish it’d warm up, but I’m not putting this thing away until I can see my grass again.”

Hurricane Hysteria Revisited

2008-02-02T01:18:00.000-08:00

Will global warming increase hurricane activity? Two studies published in the last week arrived at opposite conclusions.

A link between warmer sea surface temperatures and increased North Atlantic hurricane activity “has been quantified for the first time,” according to a study by University College London researchers that was published in Nature (Jan. 30). They claim to have associated a 0.5 degree Celsius increase in sea surface warming with a 40 percent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity during 1996-2005 as compared to the average activity during 1950-2000.

“The scientists who have linked global warming to stronger storms said the study makes sense, and is, if anything, just repeating and refining what they have already said,” the Associated Press reported (Jan. 30).

But the study result isn’t surprising considering it was derived from a computer model that included only two variables — sea surface temperature and atmospheric wind field — which the researchers claim explain about 75 percent of the variance in Atlantic hurricane activity between 1965-2005. They claim to have teased out the association between sea surface temperature and hurricane activity by statistically removing the influence of wind from the model.
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Sea surface temperatures and wind, however, aren’t the only factors affecting hurricane activity. The model omitted at least two other known factors — atmospheric humidity and sea level pressure — and other more mysterious factors such as the tendency of hurricane activity to occur in cycles that are decades long.

Even though sea surface temperatures seem to have warmed, it’s not at all clear that Atlantic hurricane activity has truly increased. As recently described in World Climate Report, the average hurricane activity during 1995-2005 was greater than that during 1971-1994, but the 1970s and 1980s witnessed unusually low hurricane activity. So the increased hurricane activity of 1995-2005 “thus appears to represent a recovery to normal hurricane activity, rather than a direct response to increasing sea surface temperature,” according to World Climate Report.

Finally, regardless of whether warmer sea surface temperatures are associated with increased hurricane activity, the University College London researchers admitted that, “Our analysis does not identify whether greenhouse gas-induced warming contributed to the increase in water temperature and thus to the increase in hurricane activity.”

Since the entire global warming debate depends on whether manmade greenhouse gas emissions drive climate change, without a link between such emissions and sea surface temperature changes, the claimed sea surface temperature-hurricane activity link is, at best, an academic point.

The other hurricane study, published in Geophysical Research Letters (Jan. 23) and not widely reported by the media, comes from climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The NOAA researchers compared sea surface temperatures with hurricanes that made U.S. landfall — the most reliable hurricane measurement over the long-term, according to the researchers. They found a slight decrease in the trend of landfalling hurricanes with warmer sea surface temperatures.

“This paper uses observational data to demonstrate that the attribution of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to global warming is premature and that global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States,” the researchers concluded.

As leading hurricane forecaster William Gray of Colorado State University put it, “Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones have no valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity would necessarily be altered by small amounts (plus/minus 0.5 degrees Centigrade) of global mean temperature change.”

Dr. Gray continued, “In a global warming or global cooling world, the atmosphere’s upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with the sea surface temperatures. Vertical-lapse rates [differences between the atmospheric and sea temperatures that, when increased, tend to favor storm formation] will not be significantly altered.”

In observing that there were 80 major hurricanes during 1945-1969 when the global temperature was cooling, but only 38 major hurricanes during 1970-1994 when global temperature was warming, Dr. Gray note that “Atlantic sea-surface temperatures do not necessarily follow global mean temperature trends.”

Even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acknowledged in its most recent assessment that although average Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the last half of the 20 century were very likely higher than at any other time during the last 500 years, “There is no clear trend in the annual number of tropical cyclones [hurricanes].

And, of course, Al Gore learned this lesson the hard way. His attempt in “An Inconvenient Truth” to link manmade greenhouse gas emissions with the Hurricane Katrina tragedy was sound rejected by a British High Court judge who succinctly ruled that, “In scene 12 Hurricane Katrina and the consequent devastation in New Orleans is ascribed to global warming. It is common ground that there is insufficient evidence to show that.”

As Sen. John McCain emerged from the Florida Republican primary as the Republican front runner, Politico.com observed that “After hitting it in most every appearance he made in New Hampshire and Michigan, John McCain now rarely brings up the topic of global warming.” In talking to reporters after a campaign event in West Palm Beach, McCain said, “I try to bring it up in areas that I think that it is of great import to people.”

Given the scientific evidence, it’s quite easy to understand why Floridians might not think that alleged global warming-hurricane link is of great import.

Global warming crop harm predicted in Africa, Asia

2008-02-02T01:17:00.000-08:00

Agricultural problems caused by global warming in the next two decades could be most damaging in southern Africa, India and Pakistan, according to researchers who urge action now to avert a wave of hunger.

Many scientists have predicted that climate change could harm agriculture in many places, fueling hunger and malnutrition. These researchers examined climate predictions and the types of crops grown in various developing regions to figure out which ones would be hit hardest by 2030.

Writing on Thursday in the journal Science, the researchers said the nations of southern Africa -- Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe -- could lose about 30 percent of their main crop of corn, also known as maize.

Agricultural losses also could be significant in the South Asia region encompassing India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, with a drop-off of at least 5 percent in many regional staples, including millet, maize and rice, the researchers said.

"We still have time to avoid these impacts, but we don't have much time," David Lobell of the Program on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University in California, who led the research, said in a telephone interview.

"It's certainly our hope not to scare people, but to show them that there is some basis for focusing efforts and trying to get things done in a relatively speedy time frame," Lobell added.

The researchers projected how global warming would affect agriculture in 12 developing regions worldwide, looking at local climate projections and at the sensitivity of key local crops to warming temperatures and rainfall changes. They determined that average temperatures in most of the regions could rise by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree C) by 2030.

"We were surprised by how much and how soon these regions could suffer if we don't adapt," Marshall Burke, another Stanford scientist involved in the study, said in a statement.

Some places could be spared serious problems including China, a generally cooler region where climate change is not projected to be as bad for local crops, the researchers said.

Relatively inexpensive adaptations like planting earlier or later in the season or changing crops could reduce the harm from climate change, but the biggest benefits probably would stem from more expensive steps like developing new crop varieties and expanding irrigation, the researchers said.

"These adaptations will require substantial investments by farmers, governments, scientists, and development organizations, all of whom face many other demands on their resources," the researchers wrote.

Former oil company exec takes on global warming

2008-02-02T01:16:00.000-08:00

ANN ARBOR -- For the first 10 years or so that Steve Percy traveled around the country talking about climate change issues, his message was simple: It's happening.

Now, the former CEO of the oil company BP America has a slightly different message: Those people and companies who aren't working to combat climate change will be left behind.

"It's starting to manifest itself in what customers are asking for," he said. "If you're a business and not thinking about these things, likely your competitors are and (they) are going to beat you."

Percy was on a panel of politicians, scientists and business owners who gathered at the University of Michigan's Rackham Auditorium for a climate change solutions discussion. Several hundred community members and college students turned out for event.

It was hosted by Focus the Nation as one of over 1,600 events taking place across the country Thursday night to educate citizens about global warming and possible solutions. Founded in 2006 by Eban Goodstein, an economics professor at Lewis and Clark College in Portland, Ore., the grassroots, nonpartisan organization fosters discussion about how to mitigate climate change.

Several of the speakers Thursday night directly challenged the college students in the audience.

"You're going to have to kick our butts (on this issue)," said state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, D-Salem Township. "Without your pressure we're going to coast.
"We are making timid, incremental change."

Gary Was, the director of the Michigan Memorial Phoenix Energy Institute, said the college students' generation will make the changes, changes that might be slow in coming.

"We don't have a solution we can put in place today," he said, but there are several good demonstration projects under way that can help point the way to a solution.

The speakers' challenge resonated with U-M junior Mary Anderson of Detroit.

"I think a lot of my friends really understand this issue," she said after the program.

"There's no real argument about whether this is happening. It's all about how we solve these problems."

The emphasis of those fighting climate change has changed over time, said Lauren Bigelow, managing director of Cleantech Network, a company that serves as a link between investors and so-called clean technology companies.

"It's more about zero percent impact than cleaning it up," she said.

Global warming hot topic on cold Sask. day

2008-02-02T01:14:00.000-08:00

Despite the frigid temperatures outside, global warming has begun to show its effects in Saskatchewan, says a climate change researcher.

Elaine Wheaton spoke at the University of Regina on Thursday about her ideas on climate change and how it is affecting the Prairies. She also added a unique angle to the issue by suggesting ways of adapting to the changes, not just ways to prevent them.

"First, I want to introduce people to the new climate because we have already gone through so much change in our climate, it doesn't match (the climate) we had 20 or 30 years ago," said Wheaton, in an interview prior to the lecture.

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She added the impact of climate change is greatest in the Prairie provinces and the north. These areas are the first to see changes because of their snow and ice coverage, which reflect the increased heat from the sun, she said.

The most obvious changes are evident in the temperature, with fewer days in the minus 40 degree range, a longer summer season and decreases in the snow cover, she said.

Wheaton goes beyond acknowledging global warming and makes suggestions on how people can adapt to these changes in regard to water, agriculture, forestry and health.

She even suggests that there could be benefits to global warming if people learn how to adapt to these changes.

"We are already committed to some degree of climate change because we have already put so many greenhouse gasses in the air and because some of them have quite long lifetimes. So that means we are already expecting quite a bit of change, even if we decreased all those emissions right now," Wheaton said.

The more people can learn about what to expect with global warming, the more likely they are to plan for it and curb the negative effects, she said.

Wheaton recognizes the damage that's already been done, but she still advocates for the continuous reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The well-known researcher of climate change in Canada and the author of But It's a Dry Cold! Weathering the Canadian Prairies, has contributed to more than 200 publications and won numerous awards for her work.

Lynn Wells, associate dean in the faculty of arts, said the lecture's aim was to educate the public on global warming and to bring these issues into public conversation.

"We thought that climate change would be the right kind of topic this year because there has been so much discussion about it in the media," Wells said.

The lecture is part of the Woodrow Lloyd lecture series, put on by the Canadian Plains Research Centre and the University of Regina faculty of arts.

The series features "a nationally or internationally recognized scholar, writer, thinker or activist who speaks on any issue of direct relevance to Saskatchewan," Wells said.

The first lecture in 1982 featured former Saskatchewan premier T.C. Douglas and W.A. Riddell, a well-known arts supporter and founder of the U of R.

Decline in Snowpack Is Blamed On Warming

2008-02-02T01:10:00.001-08:00

The persistent and dramatic decline in the snowpack of many mountains in the West is caused primarily by human-induced global warming and is not the result of natural variability in weather patterns, researchers reported yesterday.

Using data collected over the past 50 years, the scientists confirmed that the mountains are getting more rain and less snow, that the snowpack is breaking up faster and that more rivers are running dry by summer.

The study, published online yesterday by the journal Science, looked at possible causes of the changes -- including natural variability in temperatures and precipitation, volcanic activity around the globe and climate change driven by the release of greenhouse gases. The researchers' computer models showed that climate change is clearly the explanation that best fits the data.

"We've known for decades that the hydrology of the West is changing, but for much of that time people said it was because of Mother Nature and that she would return to the old patterns in the future," said lead author Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego. "But we have found very clearly that global warming has done it, that it is the mechanism that explains the change and that things will be getting worse."

Many in the West and the Southwest depend on the snowpack's springtime melt for power, irrigation and drinking water. When the snow fields melt earlier and more suddenly, dams are able to capture less of the water and must release more of it to flow on to the ocean.

"Our results are not good news for those living in the western United States," the researchers wrote, adding that the changes may make "modifications to the water infrastructure of the western U.S. a virtual necessity."

Although parts of the West have been hit by record snowfalls this winter, the data collected by the team showed that since 1950, the water content of the snowpack as of April 1 each year has decreased in eight of the nine mountain regions studied, by amounts ranging from 10 percent in the Colorado Rockies to 40 percent in the Oregon Cascades. Only the southern Sierra Nevada range did not show a drop.

The study is part of what has become a drumbeat of dire assessments based on reports of quickening climate change caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide from vehicles, power plants, industry and deforestation. Last week, the American Geophysical Union, a leading scientific group in the field, issued a warning that "Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming."

"Many components of the climate system -- including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation and the length of seasons -- are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century," the organization said, in its strongest statement to date on the subject.

Although the decline of the Western snowpack over the past few decades has been documented before, yesterday's study is the most definitive in assigning the blame to human-induced climate change.

Barnett said his team used computer models to assess what natural climate variability, sun spots, volcanoes and climate change could do to the snowpack. The climate-change model best matched the actual trends of the period from 1950 to 1999.

The chance that the model is incorrect, he said, is somewhere between 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,000.

"Given the amount of carbon in the air and the trends for future releases, we have to expect that conditions will get progressively worse for some time, no matter what we do now," he said. His team included researchers from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the University of Washington and the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan.

Researchers have also predicted that the Southwest is likely to get less winter rainfall as a result of the buildup of greenhouse gases. Because the region gets much of its water from the Colorado River -- one of the rivers affected by the reduced snowpack -- the already-dry area could be losing water from both of its main sources, Barnett said.

Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona in Tucson, said the new study "closes the circle" in terms of understanding what is happening to the climate of the West.

"Almost all of the models we've seen in recent years show the area becoming warmer and more arid due to climate change, but the question was always whether we could believe them," he said. "Now someone has done the statistical analysis to connect the dots so they can say with real confidence that this is happening because of greenhouse gases."